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To: Paul Senior who wrote (9200)12/9/1999 1:44:00 AM
From: Michael Burry   of 51607
 
Which is embarrassing to me since, unlike most of you guys, I've been a player a lot longer.

Actually, I'd take that as an excuse. I'm waiting for my future kids to ask me, "Wait a sec, dad. You were a twentysomething living in Silicon Valley in the 90's and considered somewhat knowledgeable about investing and I'm driving your old '99 Dodge pickup? What gives?" I can't wait to try to explain that I was actually trying to be wiser than the market.

Good investing,
Mike

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To: James Clarke who wrote (9202)12/9/1999 8:42:00 AM
From: jeffbas   of 51607
 
James, is QQQ something you can actually short like the American Exchange Spiders, or do you have to play it with options? The wasting time value would not appeal to me, but if there is a vehicle (symbol please) that you can hang on to indefinitely I would be interested in hearing about it.

The real problem is that shorting QQQ won't do anything to protect
situations like Mike's friend with one stock up 5 times. However, it would be useful in hedging a diversified NASDAQ portfolio.

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To: Michael Burry who wrote (9197)12/9/1999 8:55:00 AM
From: Daniel Chisholm   of 51607
 
A very, very close friend of mine whom I work with and talk with 6 hours a day has in the last 3 weeks quintupled his net worth on a single stock.

I recently received this email:

Subject: Saint Corel
Date: Mon, 29 Nov 1999 22:23:38 -0500
From: "xxx xxx"
To: "Daniel Chisholm"


Happiness is having 5000 shares of Corel at $2.96. I
don't care if he goes to jail, I love him


(figures in Canadian dollars). The story is this: This guy, a good friend of mine, struck up a conversation with me about stocks a year or so ago. I told him that I mostly did shorting, was really smart, making a lot of money, and the market was dangerous, dangerous, dangerous -- very overvalued, and I was terrified at how all the people I know would be hurt by what I considered to be inevitable. (See a recent post or two by me on this thread if you want an update on how smart and profitable I am now ... :-(

He mentioned to me that he had bought Corel, and I told him that although I hadn't shorted it, I had it under research as a possible short for a couple of years at that point. I thought that it was run by a flake, was very unfocused, might go out of business, etc. I sure didn't want a friend to get hurt buying a stock that looked "cheap" because it was only two or three dollars per share, and a former tech highflier, that "might come back" (a triumph of hope over reason?). He understood what I was talking about, and appreciated my opinion. I got the impression that he wasn't being foolish w.r.t. the size of his position, was under no illusions, and realized that he was making an "I can afford to lose it all, and might" bet.

Then on 29 Nov 99 I received the email above. And yesterday I was speaking to him, and he is still holding, despite repeated calls from his broker to sell. He's only turned $15K into $200K... ;-)

Our conversation finished up with him remarking (he's a very sensible sort of guy, he's under no illusion that he's an investment genius) how amazing it was that you make so much money "doing basically dick".

I told him that any time he needed more investment advice from me, be sure to call... ;-)

So: "tick, tick, tick...."


- Daniel

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To: peter michaelson who wrote (9201)12/9/1999 9:44:00 AM
From: Terry Maynard   of 51607
 
Right on! Also look at the salaries being paid to computer science graduates as another example of this phenomena.

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (9200)12/9/1999 9:59:00 AM
From: Grommit   of 51607
 
Good post. A prayer or two...

As a fromer crap player and gambler, I can relate. I've even had a day where I've turned $100 into a couple of thouand. Fortunately, I've funded my craps adventures with backgammon winnnings.

Anyway, if you do not know the gambler's prayer, here it is:

"Oh God, please let me break even today, because I need the money." :o)


....

Frustrating to go the the health club and hear the nincompoops on each side of me talk about how wonderful their internet stocks are doing. We cannot carry on a conversation due to their complete lack of knowledge. They can perhaps repeat something they might have read describing how wonderful internet stocks are, and how they future is on the net, but that's it. I get very jealous, as I'm sure you all do too. I wish I was not so highly trained as to be afraid of following the crowd.

People are clearly speculating and winning. Very frightening.

Dear God, plese let me relive the last 12 months, and take away my rationality so that I can make wonderful investments. (Bring me back as a woman? (some might chauvinistically joke)).

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To: jeffbas who wrote (9205)12/9/1999 10:30:00 AM
From: James Clarke   of 51607
 
QQQ trades just like a stock. You can buy it, you can short it. Ticker is QQQ.

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To: James Clarke who wrote (9209)12/9/1999 10:39:00 AM
From: jeffbas   of 51607
 
Jim, like Spiders, can it be shorted on a downtick and not subject to being called in?

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To: jeffbas who wrote (9210)12/9/1999 10:43:00 AM
From: Wallace Rivers   of 51607
 
jeff,
I think I'm right, but I don't think you need to wait for an uptick to short QQQ.

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To: Grommit who wrote (9208)12/9/1999 11:05:00 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris   of 51607
 
>Frustrating to go the the health club and hear the
>nincompoops on each side of me talk about how
>wonderful their internet stocks are doing.

Yeah, favorite lunch conversation:
"Our company's stock just went from XX to XXX, *now*
(???!!!) I will buy it for my 401(k)"

Or the favorite Silicon Valley line:
"F*** this company, I only got 500K in IPO, I'm
leaving for FooBar startup"

But I also know people who bought AMZN at $100 in
this summer. Sure they are up 8% today, but...

Jurgis - who's guilty in holding company stock in
401(k) and buying IGRYX as "defensive" part of 401(k).

But then I don't sleep at night... :-)))))

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To: Terry Maynard who wrote (9207)12/9/1999 11:45:00 AM
From: jeffbas   of 51607
 
Terry, I can't let that pass. My son is a computer software expert (35) now doing consulting for a Wall Street firm. He gets paid big bucks because they can't get the people they need to do the stuff they want done. I talk with my wife all the time about this. She is a public school teacher. While I agree that she performs a socially far more important function than my son and gets paid far less, it's supply and demand that drives salaries. In my opinion, a bear market in stocks will not severely impact demand and prices for people who are able to deliver on the cutting edge of technology.

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