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To: Paul Senior who wrote (47607)4/25/2012 11:06:58 PM
From: Jack O B
1 Recommendation   of 54425
 
Thank you for your reply sharing your thoughts on BIG. I am not an experienced in this. I do understand what I pick is my responsibility. I do not like Clownbuck recommending and then hiding becacuse he is not doing a good thing here. He is a bully without a cause. Thanks so much to you. I also like Sergio H and EKS too.

Would you give an opinion on BDX. I think this is a good pick for value because they are very steady and have a good history. I have familiarity with working for them and so maybe I am not right.

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To: Spekulatius who wrote (47617)4/25/2012 11:41:23 PM
From: Spekulatius
2 Recommendations   of 54425
 
re HES, I am likely to add more after reading the CC transcript. The earnings miss, while significant, is partly due to heavy investment and to lock in their Bakken acreage for production. They also invest huge amounts of money in infrastructure - a rail terminal station for and pipelines for crude in the Bakken (500M$) and a NG separation plant (500M$). The rail station has a capacity to move 50k brl/day. Both are nice assets that could easily go into an MLP once fully operational.

Rather than stated book, which is based on historical cost, I like to value E&P based on proved reserves and HES is somewhere in the range of 16$/brl, which sounds awfully cheap with crude around 100$/brl. And this does not even take into account the acreage, pipeline assets, rail terminals, marketing assets, gas stations and refineries that HES owns. No question that it is cheap based on the asset value but there is a question if and when they can unlock that value.

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To: Spekulatius who wrote (47190)4/25/2012 11:52:27 PM
From: Spekulatius
   of 54425
 
re DL.AS, somehow this stock is cursed for me. Stock starts to drop as soon as I buy it. I decided to sell at a sell at a very small loss.

I believe my thesis that the rising tide of liquidity from the ECB lifts all boats is probably wrong. Apparently what is happening is that the PIG banks are borrowing at the ECB bank at Libor (~1%) and buying sovereign bonds of their home nations.

I guess they figure that if their home nation defaults, they are toast anyways, so they can as well load on their own sovereign debt and collect a 5% spread if it works out. Probably not more risky than lending to small business in their respective home countries and more liquid too. Of course this does zilch for the local economy.

Even funnier, the French and German banks are selling the sovereign debt, while the banks located in Pig countries that are already up to their eyeballs are buying more.

bloomberg.com

For now I am keeping my small position in CC.PA, that mid size mutual French business bank.

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (47623)4/26/2012 12:14:30 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris
   of 54425
 
GSOL:

Some thoughts:

- It's possibly not a sham, since NASDAQ halted the shares for info request, but then restarted them and the stock did not crater. No busy-bee short reports either AFAIK. Not much Yahoo board activity either for some reason - no pushers, no shorts, mostly silence. Even the NASDAQ halt yielded only 2-3 messages. Boring.

- It's still listed in Bermuda, so financials are somewhat suspect. (I seem to remember times when we only had to doubt Florida company financials, then came Bermuda, then came China... ;)). We'll have wait for 2011 20-F to come out for full view.

- "Our China Global Sources Online website, which we launched to facilitate trade in mainland China’s domestic market, is generating very little revenue and may not ever be profitable." - this suggests that they are not a fraud, since they don't hype their stuff...

- Balance sheet is clean (assuming we trust it).

- They bought back 24% of their shares at $9 per share in 2010 for total of ~100M. I guess I vote for "not a sham". :) But shares are now trading for $6.2, so it's not clear that it was great use of capital if they don't buy shares now when they are 30% cheaper...

- Merle A. Hinrichs, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer - founder. Founded the company in 1970 in HK. Holds 44.4% shares. This may be good or bad. He is 69. I think he intends to continue, so probably no sale of the company. Probably no going private either.

I am not sure it's great that they use a lot of contractors (>90%) for content development and sales. It carries quality risks. Their website looks OK, but not supergreat.

finance.yahoo.com - this is a bit interesting. I understand Europe being soft. But they argue that US is soft too. I wonder if they are detecting softness that others are missing (i.e. China/US are gonna collapse in Q2?), or they are just masking their own problems by blaming global economy. It's an issue if they are indeed masking their own problems. My guess is that perhaps their services are less needed with a lot of connections already established. I am not sure though.

- Depending on share price GSOL may become a PFIC. Trade/hold accordingly.

I might buy a tracking position.

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To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (47630)4/26/2012 12:49:58 AM
From: Spekulatius
   of 54425
 
re KSS - i don't think that the debt level is too onerous at this point. They bought back a huge amount of shares last year but that will slow down to about 1B$, which is a little less than the free cash flow (1.1B$ in 2011). Dividend is about 270M$, so there will be a small increase in debt this year too but nothing substantial.

Essentially their depreciation is equal to their investments, so they are in steady state operating mode.

Their business model is to operate cheap - cheap standalone locations, low operating costs and they are pushing their own store brands. Their same store sales took a 10% hit in the great recession and heave been steady since at ~220$/ sqft, which is much less than a good mall location sells (>300$/sqft) but then again their locations are much cheaper to rent. the problem with these mall locations that most of the good economics accrue to the mall owner, not the stores themselves, via rents, so i like KSS business model.

KSS owns about 35% of their stores and the rest is leased. I think they do a good job with e-commerce and using it to drive traffic in their stores. We bought a few things online and I felt the deals were good and their website works well too. I am thinking ~45$ would be a good entry point for the stock and I would be a likely buyer there.

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To: NikhilJog who wrote (47628)4/26/2012 2:54:10 AM
From: Paul Senior
   of 54425
 
GSOL. How I found it? I found it in an article I had clipped from a 2007 money manager interview in the The Wall Street Transcript. I've been cleaning out some of my old files this week, and before I tossed this article out, I happened to notice that in the article's summary page, which listed the stocks to be discussed, I saw common symbols such as TM, VAR, WFMI, AAPL, XOM, etc., and yet among this group there was also something with the symbol "GSOL" -- which seemed like an odd symbol or an anomaly among all the other symbols I saw. I didn't know that symbol, and I must have ignored it or passed on it, or missed it back in '07. Anyway, this time I wrote "GSOL" down in my notebook, and later in the day when I got a chance to get on the computer, I looked it up and decided GSOL fit my criteria for a small bet for a small cap value stock. So I placed an order.

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To: Jack O B who wrote (47631)4/26/2012 3:45:31 AM
From: Paul Senior
1 Recommendation   of 54425
 
Jack O B, BDX is a tough one for me to come up with a clear opinion. I hold a few shares. Some of us here were buying in early '09, and I was one. I have sold some of those shares in past six months. Possibly because I just got tired of holding and I've been afraid of giving up much of my gains in the stock as the stock has dropped from highs of the year. Possibly also because I wanted to raise some cash for other opportunities.

In some ways the stock fits for me for a value buy (profit margins, p/sales). On some other measures, it doesn't (lack of growth in stated book value vs. current p/e, increasing d/e ratio).

I've not been following BDX -- the company and its business -- very much at all. That of course reduces my confidence in what's happening now and in future with the company. Which in turn, accentuates the likelihood that I have sold at the wrong time.

I notice now my last purchases were for a few shares @ $75.23 on 5/13/10 and then a very few shares (just a touch more) @$69.72 a month later. I believe I'll make a note that if the stock does drop a few points or so below my $75.23, that I might want to buy a few more shares.

For you though, I guess if I worked for the company and knew it's history and planned on holding the stock 5, 10, 15 or more years, then yes, my opinion would be that I would start to buy shares here at current price and also begin to reinvest dividends.

All jmo, and I've been wrong, many many times.
=====================================

Positive article in January Barron's:
online.barrons.com

"Becton Dickinson (ticker: BDX) is the world's top supplier of needles and syringes, with roughly 70% of the market, and is the go-to name for many other small-ticket diagnostic and analysis products that are seeing growing worldwide demand."


"This is a well managed company that's appropriate for any investor's portfolio," says Mark Coffelt, chief investment officer of Empiric Advisors, who thinks the stock's fair value is around $100 a share. He notes that in the past year, macro concerns have "taken focus away from stock fundamentals, but I think that's going to change. We focus on the DNA of a company, and Becton Dickinson's DNA looks good."

"Part of the company's success is tied to its strong brand and product mix: Health-care providers know and trust the name, and Becton Dickinson's wide range of low-price, consumable products makes the company a near one-stop shop that doesn't feel cost-cutting measures as acutely as other suppliers of higher-priced medical equipment"

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To: Spekulatius who wrote (47632)4/26/2012 5:55:03 AM
From: Ditchdigger
   of 54425
 
Nice summary on HES. Also in e@p shale land with depressed dry gas prices, it's all about retaining acreage with minimum required drilling to continue to hold the leases.

Also coat tailed a few of you fellas yesterday with a purchase of CJES @ 17.68.

Helping the cause, 28 degrees this morning and burning a bit of propane instead off firing up the woodstove!
ditch


CJES closed a 3 box reversal yesterday
[D][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G]http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=cjes,PLTADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G

HES held a spread bottom support line @ 51 (didn't break below 50 to close the box)
[D][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G]http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=hes,PLTADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G

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To: Ditchdigger who wrote (47638)4/26/2012 7:18:43 AM
From: Bocor
   of 54425
 
Hess Corp. has limited downside, says Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley said Hess's Q1 and guidance was disappointing but shares have limited downside and cash flow is expected to increase in 2H 2012. Shares are Overweight rated with a $95 price target.

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To: Spekulatius who wrote (47635)4/26/2012 9:53:48 AM
From: Spekulatius
   of 54425
 
NEX.PA - 38Euro is an European cable manufacturer that is absolutely getting hammered.

Looks like it's trading below stated (~1.9B Euro) and even tangible book (~1.5B Euro ?), it's market cap is only 1B Euro. Loss in 2011 was due to restructuring charges. Latest news don't sound that bad to me:

nexans.com

bloomberg.com

Cable manufacturing is a tough business but that seems somewhat overdone. I have this stock on my watchlist because 3rd Ave owns is the stock since 2010 at higher prices. Their balance sheet is in decent shape.

Disclosure: No position yet.

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