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To: Paul Senior who wrote (47624)4/25/2012 2:47:25 PM
From: Grommit
2 Recommendations   of 60825
FSP. I started buying in february and added more today. Conservative debt, simple company. I also like the governance issues -- mgmt compensation is reasonable, they changed the board to be declassified -- non staggered one year terms, etc, no employees have contracts, CEO has opted out of change of control compensation program...

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (47189)4/25/2012 3:08:21 PM
From: Paul Senior
   of 60825
ICON. Oops. This manager of clothing brands issues a miss. I'll bet on the strength or revival of its brands, and on the company's demonstrated past ability to manage their brands profitably. Had a few tracking shares. Doubled it today and am still at a very few shares.

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To: E_K_S who wrote (47621)4/25/2012 3:18:50 PM
From: Paul Senior
   of 60825
PNG: PAA Natural Gas Storage, L.P. looks like it'll work for me. Yield adequate, low p/bk, business may have potential.

Anybody here with an opinion to share about PNG? Not a great long-term public record for this company. And I always look somewhat askance about companies buried within other companies and "incentive distribution rights". Anyway, I'm in for a few shares today to start.

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (47623)4/25/2012 5:19:35 PM
From: NikhilJog
2 Recommendations   of 60825
Paul - how did you come across this company GSOL?

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From: E_K_S4/25/2012 8:50:58 PM
   of 60825
Below is a CITI Research Report on the Natural Gas & Gas Utilities. This link was posted on the Big Dog's Boom Boom Room. Many of the stocks have been discussed here.

The report lists 20 different companies and their opinion w/ price targets. Below is a list of those companies detailed in the Yahoo Finance format.

23 April 2012 ¦ 70 pages
Natural Gas & Gas Utilities
Continue to Favor Midstream Over Utilities

Here is the Forward to their report:

Weather Driving Performance — Predictably, weather is having an impact on utility
volumes, storage spreads and NGL prices (propane) in 1Q. We believe the soft quarter
is providing an entry point into some of our names. In particular, we believe ATO, NI
and UGI have witnessed near-term headwinds into the quarter. We rate UGI Buy but
continue to rate ATO and NI Neutral with modest total returns in these two names. OKE
and SE have also seized up ahead of a soft quarter. While we remain Neutral on these
two names, they do have modest upside from current levels especially given our
secular bull thesis on the growth of liquids and midstream infrastructure.

Infrastructure Focus Picks — We are raising our target price on WMB to $36 and
continue to remain bullish on the name despite what looks to be a full price for the
Caiman acquisition. We believe the acquisition has significant option value should
volumes in the Utica shale take off. We are adding SUN to our list of recommendations
in the pipeline space as the company makes the transition from a refining company to a
pipeline company. We continue to have a positive bias on CNP and SRE as companies
that could end up using the MLP as a financing vehicle for midstream, pipeline and
LNG infrastructure growth.

Energy Focus Picks — Our top pick amongst our energy focus names remains EGN,
where we believe investors continue to receive $5-10 p/s of “free” oil/liquids exploration
upside. NFG remains our defensive gas name in the group, with a sizeable portion of


I will have to check my valuations on the ones I own with theirs. I see they upped their opinion on WMB which is one of my largest holdings in this sector.

On page 22 of the report they discuss Sempra Energy (SRE) . From the report:"... Management was up-beat on the opportunity to export LNG by 2016. Last week, SRE signed commercial development agreements with Mitsubishi Corporation and Mitsui & Co. to develop and construct a liquefaction export facility at Cameron. The facility will export 1.7 Bcf/d at a cost of $5-6 BN. We estimate SRE will earn over $300 mm in net income under a full development...". The report sites this as a hidden gem which they see as "...a $15 per share free option that is not included in our valuation at this time....".

If any of these companies make it as one of your value picks, please post and explain why. This is a sector I want to continue to own but many of the companies I review seem (to me) to be fairly or even overvalued from my take.


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To: Spekulatius who wrote (47608)4/25/2012 11:05:34 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris
   of 60825
KSS - I must say I've been out of most retailers for a while (have a bit of AHONY, TSCDY and wife's TJX ;)).

Anecdotally KSS stores around us are newer and that's a plus. They have two stores within 3 miles or so, and that's a minus IMHO. They send a lot of 20%-30% coupons all year round, we just don't go there to use them. Merchandise is OK I guess, my wife would not invest in KSS though, I think she likes TJX much more. :)

I see that KSS spent a lot of borrowed money on share repurchases. That's nice if stock recovers, but risky if business does not perform or stock continues to drop. I think I'll watch it for now. :)

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (47607)4/25/2012 11:06:58 PM
From: Jack O B
1 Recommendation   of 60825
Thank you for your reply sharing your thoughts on BIG. I am not an experienced in this. I do understand what I pick is my responsibility. I do not like Clownbuck recommending and then hiding becacuse he is not doing a good thing here. He is a bully without a cause. Thanks so much to you. I also like Sergio H and EKS too.

Would you give an opinion on BDX. I think this is a good pick for value because they are very steady and have a good history. I have familiarity with working for them and so maybe I am not right.

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To: Spekulatius who wrote (47617)4/25/2012 11:41:23 PM
From: Spekulatius
2 Recommendations   of 60825
re HES, I am likely to add more after reading the CC transcript. The earnings miss, while significant, is partly due to heavy investment and to lock in their Bakken acreage for production. They also invest huge amounts of money in infrastructure - a rail terminal station for and pipelines for crude in the Bakken (500M$) and a NG separation plant (500M$). The rail station has a capacity to move 50k brl/day. Both are nice assets that could easily go into an MLP once fully operational.

Rather than stated book, which is based on historical cost, I like to value E&P based on proved reserves and HES is somewhere in the range of 16$/brl, which sounds awfully cheap with crude around 100$/brl. And this does not even take into account the acreage, pipeline assets, rail terminals, marketing assets, gas stations and refineries that HES owns. No question that it is cheap based on the asset value but there is a question if and when they can unlock that value.

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To: Spekulatius who wrote (47190)4/25/2012 11:52:27 PM
From: Spekulatius
   of 60825
re DL.AS, somehow this stock is cursed for me. Stock starts to drop as soon as I buy it. I decided to sell at a sell at a very small loss.

I believe my thesis that the rising tide of liquidity from the ECB lifts all boats is probably wrong. Apparently what is happening is that the PIG banks are borrowing at the ECB bank at Libor (~1%) and buying sovereign bonds of their home nations.

I guess they figure that if their home nation defaults, they are toast anyways, so they can as well load on their own sovereign debt and collect a 5% spread if it works out. Probably not more risky than lending to small business in their respective home countries and more liquid too. Of course this does zilch for the local economy.

Even funnier, the French and German banks are selling the sovereign debt, while the banks located in Pig countries that are already up to their eyeballs are buying more.

For now I am keeping my small position in CC.PA, that mid size mutual French business bank.

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (47623)4/26/2012 12:14:30 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris
   of 60825

Some thoughts:

- It's possibly not a sham, since NASDAQ halted the shares for info request, but then restarted them and the stock did not crater. No busy-bee short reports either AFAIK. Not much Yahoo board activity either for some reason - no pushers, no shorts, mostly silence. Even the NASDAQ halt yielded only 2-3 messages. Boring.

- It's still listed in Bermuda, so financials are somewhat suspect. (I seem to remember times when we only had to doubt Florida company financials, then came Bermuda, then came China... ;)). We'll have wait for 2011 20-F to come out for full view.

- "Our China Global Sources Online website, which we launched to facilitate trade in mainland China’s domestic market, is generating very little revenue and may not ever be profitable." - this suggests that they are not a fraud, since they don't hype their stuff...

- Balance sheet is clean (assuming we trust it).

- They bought back 24% of their shares at $9 per share in 2010 for total of ~100M. I guess I vote for "not a sham". :) But shares are now trading for $6.2, so it's not clear that it was great use of capital if they don't buy shares now when they are 30% cheaper...

- Merle A. Hinrichs, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer - founder. Founded the company in 1970 in HK. Holds 44.4% shares. This may be good or bad. He is 69. I think he intends to continue, so probably no sale of the company. Probably no going private either.

I am not sure it's great that they use a lot of contractors (>90%) for content development and sales. It carries quality risks. Their website looks OK, but not supergreat. - this is a bit interesting. I understand Europe being soft. But they argue that US is soft too. I wonder if they are detecting softness that others are missing (i.e. China/US are gonna collapse in Q2?), or they are just masking their own problems by blaming global economy. It's an issue if they are indeed masking their own problems. My guess is that perhaps their services are less needed with a lot of connections already established. I am not sure though.

- Depending on share price GSOL may become a PFIC. Trade/hold accordingly.

I might buy a tracking position.

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