Strategies & Market Trends | Value Investing


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To: Sergio H who wrote (47300)4/20/2012 6:28:24 PM
From: Bocor   of 51595
 
Nursing-home landlord, Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc. (SBRA) posted the second-best performance in the latest quarter with a total return of 38.8%. Last year, the stock of the company, based in Irvine, Calif., posted a total return of negative 29% on fears that steep cuts in Medicare reimbursements would hurt the ability of its tenants to pay rent.

Joel Beam, a fund manager at the Forward Select Income Fund and one of Sabra's largest shareholders, said the company and its tenants should be able to cut expenses to offset expected drops in Medicare revenues. Besides, "there aren't many stocks out there that you can get an 8% yield," Beam said. Sabra's yield is significantly higher than industry's average of roughly 3%.

Have you looked at this REIT? I agree there aren't too many with this yield and sadly I know cuts are being made in this field left and right; their holdings include 76 skilled nursing facilities, ten combined skilled nursing, assisted living and independent living facilities, five assisted living facilities, two mental health facilities, one independent living facility, one continuing care retirement community, and one acute care hospital. I have been holding SNH for quite a while, and it has been a nice yielding "bond" but I would like some more growth.

Also am looking at ROIC (Retail Opportunity Investments Corp), but have only scratched the surface on that one and the yield is much lower than SBRA.

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To: E_K_S who wrote (46759)4/20/2012 8:05:51 PM
From: E_K_S1 Recommendation   of 51595
 
Exxon Mobil Corporation Common (NYSE: XOM) - peeled off 27% of position (Market price exceeds GN)
C&J Energy Services, Inc. Commo (NYSE: CJES) - started a "value" swing trade position @ $16.45/share.

goo.gl 

I noticed that XOM is one of my only integrated oils where its GN ($78.55) is less than the current market price ($85.30). The stock is 8% overvalued according to this metric. Peeled off 27% of my shares (purchased 7/2010 @ $58.02) and plan to deploy the funds into better undervalued oil propositions. HES tops my buy list below $54/share. The GN for HES is $85.16 (I used 2012 EPS avg est. $6.76 w/ a TBV= $47.68). The current market price for HES is $55.07 but I think I can buy it cheaper in the coming weeks and/or month.

After blowout earnings by HAL and SLB both stating that their North American operations exceeded their expectations, I decided to start a "value" swing trade position in CJES. CJES provides hydraulic fracturing, coiled tubing, and pressure pumping services to oil and natural gas exploration and production companies.

Halliburton Profit Rises as U.S. Oil Fracking Demand Grows
By David Wethe on April 18, 2012
businessweek.com 

Although I am generally negative now on the market in general (looking for at least a 10% correction... or more to $SPX 1340; Sell in May & Go Away), I believe there are pockets of value that can be traded with a low risk & high reward strategy. Rather than trying to find overvalued short plays, I am utilizing a new technique (for me) establishing what I call "value" swing trade positions that can be put on during a correcting/down overall market.

I believe CJES is one of these plays. CJES has a GN value of $22.98 (TBV=$5.87 & 2012 EPS est=$4.00). My purchase price of $16.45 provides me a buy in point that is 40% below what I consider to be a fair value for the company (as measured by the GN). Private equity firm Greenwich ( houston.citybizlist.com  ), CT-based General Atlantic LLC filed an SEC Form SC 13D/A indicating that it now holds 4.2 million 8.1% of outstanding shares, an increase from the 3.4 million shares. They had been acquiring stock in the open market from March 20 ($18.00) through April 9 ($17.00). I estimate that the average price they paid during this period was around $17.50/share.

My strategy is to swing trade the position to generate a 30 day gain of 20% by (1) selling May $17.50 covered calls for $1.50 and/or (2) take a quick $1.00 gain on 1/3 of my shares at $17.50/share and selling the rest in increments up to $19.75/share and/or (3) some combination of both. The key for me is this is not a long term buy and hold.

I believe with the new 8.1% stock owner in at $17.50/share, my downside risk is small and on any rally, the stock could easily move back to their average acquisition cost of $17.50/share. There has been rumors to take the company private especially with cheap money trying to find a home in very profitable businesses.

My defensive sell target of $19.75/share should leave enough value in the shares even in any sustained general market sell off (worst case scenario) that I can exit today's buy with a profit.

EKS

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From: iambo4/21/2012 2:17:02 AM
   of 51595
 
Hi,

I am new to investing. I read in a book that:
Intrinsic value= present value of residual value + sum of present discounted value + cash and cash equiv. - debt
Do you guys agree with this general equation and have any general comments on intrinsic value?

Thanks.

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To: Spekulatius who wrote (47571)4/21/2012 3:22:51 PM
From: Spekulatius   of 51595
 
GBL/Pargesa holding structure. Current net asset value of GBL (4/20/2012): 72.68 Euro (38% discount to NAV)



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From: Sergio H4/21/2012 11:51:56 PM
1 Recommendation   of 51595
 
To find a bottom indicator in natural gas I select NWN as a bell weather. It has established a solid earnings history despite market gyrations.

Here's a good analyses on NWN:

seekingalpha.com 

I can't beat the breakdown on the posted analysis.

While I am not finding a bottom at this time for investing directly in NG, investing in companies that use NG to lower costs are going to be winners first. These companies offer higher risk.

investing directly in NWN should pay off for long term investors seeking a value play in the price of NG without much risk. Based on this risk assumption, I will be adding NWN to my folio.

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To: Difco who wrote (47546)4/22/2012 12:51:10 PM
From: Sergio H1 Recommendation   of 51595
 
I'll keep posting these pending litigation sites as I come across them. Here's one more:

news.cnet.com 

news.cnet.com 

______________________________________________________________________________

You didn't say which part of the family you went with during the Biodel courtship and marriage.

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To: iambo who wrote (47575)4/22/2012 2:27:12 PM
From: Paul Senior   of 51595
 
Intrinsic value: I give my opinion, fwiw.

I neither agree nor disagree that the formula you present is the proper definition of intrinsic value. When I go on the internet to see if it is, I find several intrinsic value formulas.

What is the author of the book proposing you do with the formula, if anything?

If you are a business, MBA student, then you better know and use an equation like this in your homework/project assignments. 'Cause that is what's taught. Academically it seems to be estimating the stream of future cash flows (discounted back to the present). If you are trying to make money in the stock market, then predicting the future with a discount rate to calculate present value, imo, is very dangerous. Not necessary either. (jmo, others will differ)

You will find here (this site) that several people are using the Graham Number or a modification of it, to estimate intrinsic value. While I myself don't use the Graham Number, it seems to me to be much more useful and practical than the formula that the author presents to you. (In terms of screening, and determining buy and sell prices or ranges).

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To: Bocor who wrote (47573)4/22/2012 6:39:46 PM
From: Sergio H1 Recommendation   of 51595
 
ROIC I have been following and have a postion in. ROIC has an advantage in the REIT field as it was formed after the collapse in real estate prices. It was therefore able to accumulate valuable property at distressed prices. They had extra everage by being well funded, so they were able to buy property without a need for financing...a better price and no financing costs.

They have a formula for what they look for in their investments; shopping centers anchored by a drug store or supermarket all in high population middle class or upper class locations, and have done very well in their short history. They get high grades when comparing their growth to other REITs, but they have a short history with a good start.

Don't know if you knew that I posted to you about ROIC a few months ago.
Message 27764922

I spent the last few days visiting my dad in a rehab center. There are no beds available in his area. He had to wait in the hospital until there was space in a rehab center, and each time he has returned to the hospital for overnight care his room was given to the whomever was first on the waiting list. He was not guaranteed his room or even that the same rehab center would have an opening when he was released from the hospital. I don't know how crowded senior facilities are throughout the country, but I am sure there are lots of senior citizens needing services. I don't know what happened during the Clinton presidency when healthcare cuts forced many health care related operators into bankruptcy. I plan on looking into that, but from what I see, these operators are now trading at or below book and have healthy profit margins and there is public demand.

SBRA, as you cited pays out an excellent div., much higher than any other REIT in the same field. There's not enough data since the spin off to get a good read other than to look at SUNH since 75% of SBRA's income comes from SUNH. SUNH reported in January that they were able to mitigate cuts in govt. payouts by paying down debt, IT solutions and other improvements. While SUNH survives to pay SBRA rent, SBRA is safe.

Thanks for your thoughts on SBRA. I do need to do some more reading. I could not find a website for SBRA.

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To: NikhilJog who wrote (47547)4/22/2012 8:40:32 PM
From: Difco   of 51595
 
I'm glad you enjoyed it- I was very lucky to read it in the paper at the time. Unfortunately, the WSJ doesn't report as much as it used to, but oh well, we have a sports section now. I simply like interesting stories like everybody else here and sometimes they are profitable and sometimes not, but as long as we learn from them I'm hooked. One of my favorites is below:

Message 27673889

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To: Difco who wrote (47581)4/22/2012 9:29:51 PM
From: NikhilJog   of 51595
 
Difco - If you want to read some interesting risk arb plays, i wrote a long/short on RAH/POST spin, while CAG was trying to takeover RAH. Its a classing marrying of risk arb with a spin-off that can generate substantial returns for you.

What also made that analysis interesting was the state statues that were involved. Now if i post you the link here, Jurgis will come after me.

But you can google and read it on my Seeking Alpha blog. its too much to write here.. its headline is "Shorting Ralcorp Now / Going Long Post Foods After Spin-Off Should Yield High Returns"

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