Strategies & Market Trends | Value Investing


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To: Wallace Rivers who wrote (47411)4/13/2012 9:18:02 PM
From: Keith J   of 51624
 
SWN is about as pure NG as you can get, but even they are targeting some unconventional oil plays going forward.

But it's hard to be very optimistic on NG for the next 6 months at a minimum.

KJ

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From: E_K_S4/14/2012 1:11:00 PM
2 Recommendations   of 51624
 
Re: Update of my E&P basket

Started my E&P basket in October 2010. I have added and sold positions to (1) build a low cost basis and (2) weed out the losers and build up the winners. The basket started out with 16 different small cap E&P companies.

I have trimmed my E&P basket from 16 stocks to 12. Sold off my losers, peeled off enough gains from my winners to cover losses so I can let the rest run. I added more to my basket last October when the lows in oil hit and many of these E&P's were selling much lower. MHR was one of these and a few others.

As a result, my cost basis is quite low on my remaining E&P's in the basket. I anticipate another sell off in October/November period and I will load up again.

I am learning that it is the nature of these E&P stocks to fluctuate a lot. They tend to peak in price in late April and sell down in Sept-Nov period. So this time, I peeled off some profits early, booking some losses & gains around the end of March 2012.

Some of these will double again so I want to always hold a long position. My strategy was/is to keep lowering my cost basis on my winners and be disciplined on taking profits on at least 20% of the position(s) as they move up 20% or more, peeling off a few shares here and there.

So far, my basket is 35% smaller from it's peak value of 2/24/2012 but around the same value from when I originally started building it in 10/2010. After netting out my losses, I have booked about a 20% positive return on my closed sales. Inside the basket, I show it is valued at 13% above my current cost.

Here are the positions:

IONAF 1.1 %
HK (formerly RAM) 9.31%
LEI 9.1 %
MPET 2.48%
AZZEF 3.05%
DEJ 2.1 %
SDCJF 7.26%
VOG 4.84%
SSN 17.67%
MHR 34.36%
DBLE 2.43%
AXAS 4.68%


My top winners include: HK (+86%), MHR (+ 68%), SSN (+19%), IONAF (+16%), & AZZEF (+7.14%). The others show losses that I will either sell when I take more gains and/or buy more should a buying opportunity arise.

Still an investment in progress.

EKS

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (47453)4/14/2012 3:54:26 PM
From: Matt Monday   of 51624
 
Paul,

I agreed to play a round of golf walking backwards in high school for $100. Unfortunately i could not even finish the round and could barely walk for the next week.. And i still like to short stocks, i should learn my lesson by now.


Anyhoo..... i like your APOL thinking, what about DV too? this sector is getting hammered, they are still the go to for continuing education once they work through there legal complications. Also, on dataroma DV is getting heavy interest from the value guys.

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To: E_K_S who wrote (47455)4/14/2012 4:08:47 PM
From: Matt Monday   of 51624
 
EK$

I love your basket approach to these companies. And been considering the same kind of positioning in my portfolio

For me, Its hard for me to explain... and i have had this theory on the E&P companies.... IF you are going to invest in a tech company (or E&P) you have to extend your investments across a wide moat, you cant just be selective and choosing one.... you have to essentially spread your risk out while at the same time hoping that one or two of the investments pays so exponentially large that it pays for your duds that didnt work out, if you only invest in one or two your risk increases exponentially but your return profile doesn't match the risk.....


That is why i have been hesitant for to invest in the tech companies, instead of investing in a couple of E&P companies because of the risk i would rather spread the same dollar amount across 10-15 companies.

The value is in the sector and certain regions, not in the names - it is just to difficult to pick a couple and hope for the best.

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To: Matt Monday who wrote (47456)4/14/2012 4:33:57 PM
From: Spekulatius1 Recommendation   of 51624
 
re DV - the education for profit industry strikes me as a case of making a living off from Uncle Sam's largelesse, so the margin of safety for these stocks pretty much depends on this continuing. This is not a bet I would be willing to make.
FWIW, Barron's has an article about ESI that is worth a read :

Clever is as clever does:

online.barrons.com 

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To: Spekulatius who wrote (47458)4/14/2012 8:45:49 PM
From: Matt Monday   of 51624
 
Clowbuck,

Point def taken, thanks for putting me in my place.

That is why i cant see myself buying at this price. I think once they finally trade well below book/ncav, bc write downs will happen when uncle sam tide finally goes out and they are standing there naked. I dont want to be holding them during this period.

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To: Matt Monday who wrote (47459)4/15/2012 2:07:41 AM
From: Paul Senior   of 51624
 
Was this the point that was def taken that put you in your place?

"re DV - the education for profit industry strikes me as a case of making a living off from Uncle Sam's largelesse, so the margin of safety for these stocks pretty much depends on this continuing."

Do you see any evidence that the government will change its educational funding to reduce Pell grants, guaranteed loans, and/or veterans' benefits to such an extent that funding cuts wipe out the for-profit schools' ability to be profitable? Policies/procedures/rules/regulations -- government changes there yes. Why assume the for-profits can't adapt to these?

DV: I don't see DV trading as low as "book/ncav". It's possible though. I've no position now; I might be interested if DV falls another 10%. Last time the sector was down I wound up buying shares in several for-profits, and I may do that again.

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To: Matt Monday who wrote (47395)4/15/2012 6:28:49 PM
From: Spekulatius   of 51624
 
re Japanese net-net - most (if any) of these don't even at the Tokyo stock exchange, which means that there are significant liquidity issues and I am not even particular picky on that issue.

Also (because of the above), even Interactive Brokers won't let you buy any of them, which makes the analysis pretty moot for me. I also disagree with the Authors choice of rating Excel first, since this name has the smallest EBITDA margins and is in the very competitive field of LCD manufacturing. I probably would have picked out Natoco from the lot.

FWIW, for japanese companies, i prefer those with some export exposure, since they have a chance tom grow, even if the Japanese domestic economy continues to falter. There are plenty of names to choose from, that trade on the Tokyo stock exchange and have better information flow (access to financials) and probably better prospects.

Right now, i only own 5018.T (Moresco), the specialy chemistry and lubricant company, which is not a net net.

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From: GVinvesting4/15/2012 11:29:29 PM
   of 51624
 
Peabody Energy Corporation Write-up.

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From: Paul Senior4/16/2012 1:18:27 AM
   of 51624
 
Japanese stock: As only an fyi and fwiw, I see the site in this post below mine is or was recommending Nippon Antenna as a Ben Graham net-net:

gvinvesting.com 

I'm not much interested now in small-cap Japanese stocks or doing the work to see if any are net-nets. Here are some financial numbers that might be helpful to somebody who might be interested though:

nippon-antenna.co.jp 

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