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From: Celtictrader3/2/2012 3:45:06 PM
2 Recommendations   of 53767
 
FSLR the analyst calling for a Game Ender...

video.cnbc.com 

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To: benbuffett who wrote (46856)3/2/2012 4:13:26 PM
From: Spekulatius
1 Recommendation   of 53767
 
NPK
>>"In looking ahead to 2012, Ms. Cohen commented, “Many of the issues that the Company faced in 2011 will in all probability continue in 2012, in particular, those that stem from a weak economy"<<

But the economy is not really that weak. Many retailers are thriving and then i read the sob story in NPK's earnings release about retailers only keeping the minimum inventory and having bare shelves when the customer is ready to buy. This just does not ring true with me, the last XMas season was good for many retailers. i suspect that there are other reason for their weakness than they state, namely that they products are stale and retailers and consumers are not interested.

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To: E_K_S who wrote (46768)3/2/2012 7:12:10 PM
From: Paul Senior
   of 53767
 
EKS, To your question, Iona's a North Sea gas producer stock I'm buying, and that you might look at.

I’m buying INA.v/IONAF.pk. It’s developing North Sea gas properties.



From their recent presentation they say they expect or are targeting 8k boepd for exit production 2012. And 50% more -- 12K for ’13.



I don’t know if there is or will be a nat gas glut for producers who supply North Sea gas. And I don’t know how the recent increases in English North Sea tax rates will affect Iona. I suspect these are not relevant factors at this point for INA stockholders.



There are 141m of INA shares outstanding. INA has now obtained $130M with a Senior Secured Reserve Lending Facility. The company has also said they intend to issue between $60-$80M more of stock. At $.55/sh that would be between 109-145M more shares. (i.e. roughly doubling the outstanding shares). Shares may have to be priced less than .55 to place, I don’t know. Stock price is now about .57- .58/sh. From all this I calculate enterprise value to be, or will be (141+145)x $.58 = $166M, plus $130M = $296M. (I assume the current net cash, $30M, and the cash from the stock issuance, will all be spent to bring INA’s new field(s) into operation for 2012-3 production.)



So to value the company on its presumed 8k boepd (mostly gas), what is the metric number we might be using to guess what a purchaser might pay for the entire company? Maybe, if nat gas pricing holds up in Europe, maybe $60K per boepd? That would value INA at $480M . So the stock is undervalued based on it having an enterprise value of $296M (and 8k bopd at end of '12).




The stock also appears undervalued imo on other valuations. For example, 2pnpv(after tax) is $3.09, per p.20 of 2/3/12 presentation. Somebody’s also reported the stock’s very inexpensive on a cash flow basis if the company can get its wells up and running and producing as the company hopes.



I’m somewhat overwhelmed with all these e&p companies I’m looking at and/or owning. In considering the INA numbers now, these other stocks temporarily fall into the background for me. Which means I’m not quite sure where I place INA compared to others that I’ve found that, rightly or wrongly, seem to me to be cheap. I’m guessing that if INA can pull out the gas/oil that they expect without too many production glitches impeding them, that INA will be over $1 by year end - maybe a double within 12 months- making it one of better stock bets now in my purview, based on value and timeliness. But who knows? (I’ve been wrong many, many times.) I'm buying shares, yet also buying shares of other e&p’s as well.



I point out that although I’m buying shares now because I believe I see the value now, I do expect that INA might go lower and perhaps provide a better buying opportunity. To sell all its new shares, I believe the company will have to offer those shares at prices below the current shares price that exists when the pricing announcement is made. And I expect the then current stock price to move down to, and maybe below, that offering price.




All jmo,
Paul S.





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To: benbuffett who wrote (46856)3/2/2012 7:26:18 PM
From: Sergio H
   of 53767
 
One of the reason's for the sell off in NPK.....NPK's ammunitions sales will not keep up with 2001 levels. Since the U.S. pull out of Iraq, the DOD's demand has decreased.

<On February 18, 2010, the Army awarded AMTEC a second five-year contract for the management and production of the 40mm Ammunition System. As in the original 5-year contract, AMTEC was awarded the majority share of the 40mm requirement. The first year requirements awarded to AMTEC under the new five-year contract exceeded $183,400,000. The actual and cumulative dollar volume with the Army over the remaining four years of the contract will be dependent upon military requirements and funding, as well as government procurement regulations and other factors controlled by the Army and the Department of Defense.>

gopresto.com 

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (46860)3/2/2012 8:59:25 PM
From: E_K_S
   of 53767
 

Re: IONA ENERGY INC (IONAF.PK)

Paul good analysis.

The thing that catches my attention is Europe is dependent on a lot of their NG deliveries from Russia via various pipelines into Europe. There have been lots of political disagreements between the countries that have (and in the future) will affect the price and the delivery of that NG into Europe.



I do not want any of that Political risk. The NG from the North Sea is a different story. There is already a huge network of NG pipeline infrastructure from the North Sea to Europe.



Therefore, there is less political risk with your source wells located in the North Sea. For me, that is the only reason I would look outside the U.S. and/or Canada for investing in any foreign NG E&P. Also, the U.S. continues to maintain their tight NG export rules limiting permits to develop LNG terminals, charging high tariffs and basically constricting any new future developments to export domestic NG outside the U.S..

This for me is an interesting play. A company w/ a $296M Enterprise value is still on the smaller size.

My last venture w/ a small E&P w/ exposure in Europe was a disaster w/ Talisman Energy Inc. Common Sto (TLM). Basically their whole European venture was a dud (before the opportunity for fracking) mainly because of the political issues w/ Turkey and getting their gas from their offshore wells into the distribution system. Don't remember all the details but it seemed like one problem after another. Took a 50% loss on that one.

EKS

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To: gizwick who wrote (46721)3/2/2012 9:03:19 PM
From: Sergio H
1 Recommendation   of 53767
 
Whitney Tilson's Huge Bullish Presentation On Berkshire Hathaway

http://www.businessinsider.com/whitney-tilsons-bullish-berkshire-hathaway-2012-3#-1#ixzz1o10PX67R

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To: Sergio H who wrote (46863)3/2/2012 9:44:26 PM
From: Mr.Gogo
   of 53767
 
Sergio,

Veolia is behaving very well, high volume... Looks like the market knows something we don't.

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To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (46775)3/2/2012 10:41:34 PM
From: Difco
   of 53767
 
I think this is a sound idea! I've heard that if we gather a number of people and organize as a club, we could try and meet with him personally outside of the shareholders weekend - the mere fact that most of the people here have been discussing value investing for an extended period of time and are lifelong followers of Graham could be a swaying point (maybe optimistic). We have a vast array of ages and backgrounds, but we're united by our common passion.

On the other hand, we could be part of the 40,000 gathering that weekend - the last time I was at such gathering was an U2 concert.

Think about it.

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To: Sergio H who wrote (46861)3/2/2012 10:50:51 PM
From: Difco
   of 53767
 
Sergio- this is right on point.

"All the ratios of Presto are quite satisfactory - the growth figure suspiciously so, in fact. By that we mean that the company was undoubtedly benefiting considerably from its war work, and the stockholders should be prepared for some falling off in profits under peacetime conditions.'

This is from "The Intelligent Investor" Chapter 18 Fourth Revised Edition.

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To: Difco who wrote (46865)3/2/2012 11:37:47 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris
   of 53767
 
Hmm, I like your idea a lot. Would people on this thread be interested if we could get an SI Value Investors meeting with Buffett set up? If we can get 10+ yeah's, I or Difco can contact Berkshire and see if we can get him for a meeting sometime. Obviously, it might be odd day/time/place, but I think it would be great both in terms of meeting Buffett and meeting each other. :) (In the worst case, we get Charlie and then it's gonna be a riot :P)).

So far we have:
Jurgis - Yay! I think I'd have +2 or +3 people coming with me from local value investors :)
Difco - Yay! (I assume :)))

Any others?

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