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To: armi who wrote (40318)	11/30/2010 12:32:58 PM
From: rllee	of 51623

NFLX is at a bubble stage and will be a great short when the momentum ends. Here are some of the negatives besides a very high evaluation: 1. They need content (TV shows online) to expand and would have to pay more for it in time 2. The ISP's like Comcast wants to charge them for their customer's high download/streaming usage which they need to pass on to customers or reduce its own profits. This is in today's Wall Street Journal. 3. Even if they charge everyone in the US capable of steaming their products a fee of $10/mo (or whatever the current rate is), it still will not add up to its current evaluation. 4. To expand they need to go overseas but foreign ISP typically block US programs (especially video) from use. To get overseas they have to pay more fees to foreign entities and pass on the costs to foreign customers. There are probably more negatives but these are the ones that come to mind right now.

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (40333)	11/30/2010 1:24:19 PM
From: E_K_S	of 51623

Good point Paul for ABT vs LLY. Covidien plc. Ordinary Shares ((NYSE: COV ) I went for COV for a medical devise company. The COV dividend is much smaller than what ABT pays. I do want to add some other pharmaceutical companies. My favorite is Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK). I would like to add more at any price below $30.00/share. My last buys in MRK were $27.00 and $29.00 in 4th Qtr 2008 and 2nd Qtr 2009 respectively. finance.yahoo.com If MRK ever gets back down below $30.00/share, their dividend should yield over 5%. EKS FWIW - ULTR may see $7.00/share today. It's been a long hold for me but I am going to like the road back to $15.00/share especially after loading up last year in the $2.50/share area. Been looking to add to Fibria Celulose SA (FBR) (the re-emerged ARACRUZ CELULSE ADR NEWF (M) (ARA)- Brazilian Wood fiber producer). These two companies (FBR & ULTR) should be good South America emerging market plays. finance.yahoo.com

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To: Madharry who wrote (40340)	11/30/2010 5:43:36 PM
From: Paul Senior	of 51623

GOOG. Madharry, I guess it's the possible overpay for Groupon. $6B. Still, GOOG has $33B in cash. I'm sticking with my long-time evaluation metric. IF GOOG outstanding profit margins hold up, GOOG is worth a p/e of 25 or more. IF the 12/'11 analyst average estimate for earnings is correct (about $33/sh), GOOG fair value imo s/b over $800/sh --- higher than the $700 I've been mentioning over the past couple of years. Not that it particularly matters: I've either been wrong in my valuation or even if I'm correct, if the market won't ever validate it, then that's a value trap I'm in. I continue to hold all shares.

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