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 Biotech / Medical : Isis Pharmaceuticals (ISIP)

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To: billkirn who wrote (2168)7/26/1998 2:44:00 PM
From: TinaKRead Replies (2) of 4667
 
The market for CMV retinitis is 90 million. As someone else noted the drug may be approved only as a second line therapy. If you looked at the Us trial alone and ignored the European open label trial, the drug was less effective than intravitreous gancyclovir. Even with approval as a first line it will not gain appreciable market share because of three things: the failure to provide data that shows improved efficacy, the fact that CMV is a systemic disease (it causes, hepatitis, pneumonitis, colitis ect in addition to retinitis) and a lot of physicians prefer to provide IV therapy and not localized therapy; and because of cost. I was one of the idiots who saw the story on CNBC and thought JK said the stock was up 18, but luckily I didn't sell. I actually bought another 1,000. On the published data and data provided at meetings, 2922 is much less impressive than 2302. 2922 has nonantisense side effects which in a very small number of patients were serious and irreversible. (The second reason it may be second line.) 2922 is not a good canidate to show the potential of antisense because of the equivocal data and the side effects. I think 2302 will be the breakout drug. The early published data and the data presented at meetings is very impressive and much better than the results with Avakine. Also Isis is being very strict with it's protocol requirements and this will eliminate some of the criticism that the Centocor trials had. I'm considering attending the antisense meeting that Isis is sponsoring, anyone else out there attending?
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