<<1.- Dry-out of G3 sales. I have no idea how many of the purported 27 million Apple users will upgrade to G3. I know some that most definitely will, and others that surely won't, but I can't come up with a good estimate in percentages.>>
Well, Apple's counted on educational makert for about 50% of its
total revenue. Currently, Federal budge has 50b+ surplus, and state
/county has significant surplus too. They will put more funds to the
education. So besides 27m users, we should also encounter those
who will be added as the new users.
<<More Intuits. As software comes up for revision cycles we can expect more companies to announce that they won't release Mac versions of their software. How many? once again I have no idea, but the risk is there and it should be accounted for.>>
Microsoft is particularly interested in Intuit's business. I think Apple,
Microsoft, and Intuit altogether will figure out the best approach for
Intuit's on Mac.
<< SGI. Silicon Graphics is dying while vying for the same sort of graphics market niche that Apple is strong in. A desperate play by SGI could damage Apple revenues.>>
SGI's major market is in the enterprise/Federal business sectors while
Apple's in education, publishing, engineering/science communities.
Apple's has its own unique customers but SGI has competitors such
as Sun, HP and IBM, and Apple later when Rhapsody is available.
I think SGI will be absorbed by Sun or other big companies sooner or
later.
Phil |
