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Technology Stocks : WDC, NAND, NVM, enterprise storage systems, etc.
WDC 87.64+0.7%12:19 PM EDTNews

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To: reddy_s who wrote (3423)12/28/2017 12:16:53 PM
From: reddy_s1 Recommendation

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Mesaverde

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This is how I derived the numbers. The example here shows details with 20% cost reduction and various asp changes. If anyone finds any mistake, I appreciate if you could correct me.

Gross Margin gm 58% 58% 58% 58% 58% 58% 58% 58%
ASP change p -40% -30% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 0%
Cost change c -20% -20% -20% -20% -20% -20% -20% -20%
Bit Growth 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 0%
Expected NAND GM=1-(1-gm)(1+c)/(1+p) 44.00% 52.00% 58.00% 60.47% 62.67% 64.63% 66.40% 66.40%
HDD Rev (mil) 10,500 10,500 10,500 10,500 10,500 10,500 10,500 10,501
HDD EPS $4.50 $4.50 $4.50 $4.50 $4.50 $4.50 $4.50 $4.50
NAND Rev (mil) 10,500 10,500 10,500 10,500 10,500 10,500 10,500 10,500
NAND EPS $9.00 $9.00 $9.00 $9.00 $9.00 $9.00 $9.00 $9.00
Current Total EPS $13.50 $13.50 $13.50 $13.50 $13.50 $13.50 $13.50 $13.50
Expected Total Rev (mil) 19,950 21,525 23,100 23,888 24,675 25,463 26,250 21,001
Expected NAND EPS $6.14 $8.47 $10.80 $11.96 $13.13 $14.29 $15.46 $10.30
Expected Total EPS $10.64 $12.97 $15.30 $16.46 $17.63 $18.79 $19.96 $14.80
Total Rev. Growth -5.00% 2.50% 10.00% 13.75% 17.50% 21.25% 25.00% 0.00%
Blended gm 36.63% 41.27% 45.27% 47.08% 48.77% 50.35% 51.84% 48.20%
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