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ASML 173.36+0.7%Dec 13 5:20 PM ESTNews

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From: BeenRetired12/6/2017 5:33:44 PM
   of 5040
 

MU CC: NAND bits UP +40-50%.....................................................................


Ernie Maddock

Yes, so we’ve actually said it’s approaching 50%. So again I would say 50% would be the upper end of the range that we would articulate and your pick a number in between and I -- and I do think the range of industry estimates is sort of approaching 40% to Micron approaching 50%, so it’s not too wide a dispersion in the context of being so early in the year and the fundamental technology transition that exist as you’re moving to 64 layer nano and there is this huge bit growth that’s occurring as you make these transitions and so you know a relative rate of speed while in DRAM it might make a difference of a percent or so when you’re dealing with these kind of transitions could be 2% or 3%.

So I think that’s why you see a wider dispersion of estimate than you then you might on the DRAM side. We would agree that that market is fairly elastic, you know we think that for 2017, you’re going to see big growth somewhere in the mid 30s plus or minus range a little bit, and at that level of bit growth you are supply constraint which is you know have been a function reflected in the pricing environment, and certainly, whose ever estimate you like better for 2018, it would suggest that growth is going to increase.

You would expect in an elastic market that you will see some pricing response, but it’s also important to remember with that level of bit growth you’re going to have pretty substantial industry wide cost reduction that comes with it, and so I think a lot of the profitability concerns for the – I think people are maybe thinking about just the potential price changes, but they are not thinking about the cost reduction the industry will generate when you get bit growth in the 40% range, and I think that if you consider those two things together that may leave you with a different feeling about the opportunities for manufacturers in 2018.
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