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Technology Stocks : Cohu, Inc. (COHU)
COHU 22.74+4.4%5:20 PM ESTNews

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To: Steve Yucca Valley who wrote (6479)12/5/2017 10:46:46 PM
From: robert b furman  Read Replies (1) of 6483
 
Hi Steve,




I'm fine - I'm a very avid deer hunter and have been living in a tree stand for 3-4 weeks.




Finished up hunting and had to drive down to my Houston home for some year end dealership business.




Have that completed today and will be here for 2 more days and then a drive back to Wisconsin (trying to bag one more deer with a crossbow).


Thanks for your kind words.

I'm watching Cohu carefully and considering selling some 20.00 puts for a start and will get serious if I can sell some 17.50's.



Also watching Brks and will swap some Cohu for Brks if the prices equalize - better dividend.




This is an over reaction to the tax reform - that is not yet completely known.




The 20 % alternative tax minimum is very near what Jeffrey Jones estimated 2018 tax rate to be and will have minimum damage.




So this is an over reaction and a buying opportunity.




Thinking we are in an ABC corrective wave and have entered C down.




It should be 5 waves and today may have entered a 2 up with another ugly 3 down - then a 4 and a 5.




Here's a fib retrace going back to when the election put us into a nice impulsive up wave:




screencast.com




we have all but touched the 38.2 retrace.




EW institute says that corrective waves retrace 50 % to 61.8 % 73% of the time.




Its a good first place to buy or add to.




A bit more patience may be more rewarding at 19.59 or 18.06.




The last corrective took us to 15.55 - so uptrend remains in tact.




Best accumulations were made back at 10 ish - so any play here would be a small add to (on a percentage basis) unless you have ice water in your veins and long term buy and hold capabilities.




Last buy I made was at 19.27 two earnings ago and, I bailed out when price hit 22.50.


It was a trade not a buy and hold.

Still love the company but this Q4 is a seasonal weak time for equipment makers.


Other equipment makers are still doing well - especially if they are involved in memory.


Cohu has never been in memory, until now with X crosspoint at Micron and that appears to be ramping into 2018.




Buy the DIP but make sure the dip is big - scale in with 2-3 lower price points is my idea.


Bob
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