|I listened to the SIMO conference call. Hard to figure out if SIMO remains a great stock pick, or not.|
They're still waiting for NAND prices to come down and client SSDs to increase a lot due to price elasticity. They say NAND production is up a lot, but NAND pricing isn't going down. So......hmmmm?
The CEO wants to say client SSDs will go gangbusters next year growing each and every quarter starting from Q3 2017, and the CFO wants to say "lets wait and see". Sort of funny.
eMMC is plodding along, but no growing.
Their Shannon and Ferri products are doing well, increased production of NAND is good for them even if prices don't come down.
So they're still waitng for NAND to enter over supply, then their revenues (it seems) will boom. But will NAND prices come back down? I guess it has to happen in Q1 when seasonality is down and production continues to ramp. How can NAND prices not fall in Q1 with reduced demand and increased production?
SIMO sounds like they have a massive enterprise market to tap into with new standardized enterprise NAND controllers, but it will be a multi-year roll out, so perhaps a 2019 growth story. I don't know if I will still own it that many years from now.
No idea what the stock will do today. It didn't trade much post-market last night and it doesn't seem to have traded this morning, and the news seems 100% in line with guidance. Ya got me where it goes from here......probably up a bit, because the good news remains in the future.