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Technology Stocks : Cohu, Inc. (COHU)
COHU 22.74+4.4%Dec 15 8:10 PM ESTNews

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To: robert b furman who wrote (6473)10/10/2017 2:54:14 PM
From: robert b furman  Read Replies (1) of 6483
 
Chart Update:

stockcharts.com

Still no confirmation of earning webcast date.

Q2 was on the 4th friday of the month.

Historically the fourth Thursday has been the most often used?

I do not like how the Macd is rolling over and the Rsi has dipped below 70.

I still think Cohu has a long run to go - but resets do happen and Cohu is nearing that point after having a very nice long run up.

The investor presentation given on 9/17/17 with Dougherty is very optimistic. They now (as announced in the Q2 webcast) estimate that H2 will equal H1's 175 million revenue for a total of 350 million revenue.

Q3's revenue range was 88 - 90 million.

They did receive record orders in Q2.

That being said - if seasonality holds and H2's revenue is 175 million and the low end of Q3's guidance is attained then Q4 estimate will stand at 175 - 88 = 87 million.

If the high end of Q3's guidance is met then Q4's guidance will be 175 - 95 = 80 million.


GAAP Results (1)
(in millions, except per share amounts)Q2 FY 2017Q1 FY 2017Q2 FY 2016 (2)6 Months 20176 Months 2016 (2)


Net sales$93.9$81.1$76.4$175.0$142


So unless they guide higher that that announced on September 19th - the guidance for Q4 may well be the lowest of 2017!

Note to file: The Q2 revenue was a beat and the guidance was above consensus and the stock price went down !?

What would weak guidance do? Heck of a question !!

Also note to file Donahue the CEO ( who has a lot of Cohu shares) has sold two 75,000 share lots - one in the 18's and one in the 23ish range.

Do you think he fears what weak guidance will do??

I think Cohu needs a reset and a longer term digesting of the great advance that has occurred after the earnings announcement and its short term price decline.

Today Macd has dipped below its average earlier this morning - it will be close based on the close.

I'm long and strong on this company - but any pop in here and I'll sell some big fat juicy calls that will be covered by my long term core position.

Hope this helps anyone long here.

Bob
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