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Technology Stocks : OLED Universal Display Corp
OLED 169.150.0%Dec 13 8:10 PM ESTNews

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To: slacker711 who wrote (12630)10/5/2017 4:39:38 PM
From: Cooters3 Recommendations

Recommended By
MrBusiness
richthedude747
slacker711

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IMO you've made the critical points but I'm going to frame the argument differently, and it hopefully will highlight why I believe we are likely to see this drag into 2018 and get rather......contentious...

The leverage in this negotiation is not based on one fulcrum because it is not based on one moment in time, it is a moving and fluid target. I'll narrow it for sake of argument to a day in each of the 5/6 years we hope the agreement spans.

- 7/1/18 - I would consider Samsung's leverage virtually zero, almost laughable, they cannot produce a commercial OLED without a license and UDC emitters.

- 7/1/19 - Ligands patents still valid, very unlikely but not impossible that commercial TADF emitters could be available. Still major advantage UDC.

- 7/1/20 - Now we are getting to a situation. Ligands patents begin to expire. TADF emitters are much more in the realm of reality, remembering we are speculating about their availability today. Advantage UDC.

- 7/1/21 - New world. Ligands patents expired or expiring worldwide. Are we relying on the 4000 patents now? Still betting TADF is not a viable option? IMO we have arrived at Advantage Samsung.

- 7/2/22 - Advantage Samsung

Note when I say Advantage Samsung I am talking in a negotiation. What actually transpires will come to pass in the fullness of time. What Samsung has to accept for a one year extension is not what they have to accept for a 6 year deal.

Cooters


PS - And also note the patent leverage was much stronger in 2011 and we know what we got.
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