|Excellent thought process, richard. A lot of great trades are based on buying weakness this year and understanding that next year will be much better. Lousy comps this year can lead to amazing comps next year (and so on).|
One of my better calls was on GOL - Brazilian Airlines at the end of 2015/early 2016. Delta was putting money into the company to support their "troubled times", right before the Olympics were coming and also during a time of political problems. Naturally, I'm picking out an amazing move but I wrote in late 2015 that the play was going to pan out, roughly a year down the road.
More on GOL, which I think will be a very good story next year but may have lots of difficulties between now and then.....from Zack/Yahoo
Revenue passenger kilometers or RPK at Gol Linhas in Aug 2015 declined 2% year over year to 3.1 billion. International RPK climbed 3.5% while domestic RPK declined 2.8%. Available seat kilometers (ASK) declined 0.3% year over year mainly due to the 0.6% fall in domestic capacity. On the international front, ASK improved 2.2%. Domestic load factor (percentage of filled seats) declined 170 basis points (bps) to 76.1%, while the metric improved 100 bps to 72.9% on the international front. In the first eight months of 2015, GOL’s consolidated RPK has improved 5.3% while capacity has been up 3%. Load factor improved to 78% from 76.3% with traffic growth outpacing the rise in capacity. Meanwhile, Moody’s Investors Service, the rating arm of Moody’s Corp., downgraded the company’s outlook to negative from positive in view of currency headwinds and weak domestic demand.