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Strategies & Market Trends : Underexposed Technical Analysis

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From: Underexposed10/2/2017 12:45:27 PM
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ALERT! BGC Partner Inc. Breakout - Fantasy portfolio registering a 22% gain (so far)

I don't know if anyone is following this Fantasy portfolio and investing real money by shadowing it. But I thought I would not only give this alert but explain how I will handle this event.

Here is the first 2 charts.... Point and Figure and Trigger charts




We will start with the P&F chart first.

The bottom axis does not have a time line as such, rather these are just markers to show the reader how the chart changes with time. This chart ranges from Jan 2003 to the present. As you can see this would have been a hell'va long term hold if you grabbed this stock after the crash of 2008/2009. Even at Jan 2010 buying at $2.75 to today at $14.75 which would have been about a 500% gain for 7 years... so nice.

But we did not do this in this fantasy portfolio... This is the record of our buy:

4-Jun Buy 780 shares of BGC Partners Inc. @$12.09/share ($9,430.20)

and now

2-Oct
BGC Partners Inc.
780

$14.76
$11,512.80
22.08%

So we have gained $2000 in 4 months for a 22% gain and possibly more to come.

It is difficult to really gauge where a potential resistance lies ahead when you look at the P&F chart. The price of the stock is at all time highs and soaring.

We can make a rough guess at when the current run will end. We do this by using a horizontal count from a major congestion prior to a breakout. The count is shown in the chart and from the given data we are looking at $6.75 rise in price from $8.25.

So this chart guesses that the current run will stop at $15.00

Does this mean the stock will start falling from here.... I doubt it... there may be a pullback (as you will soon see in the next chart). It could be a rest for a while... or it could blast higher or plummet...who knows at this point.

We will map out a strategy at the end of this post.

Now look at the Trigger chart

The indicators at the bottom are full on bullish... the Slow Sto is over 80 and the MACD has a sudden rise in slope... the BBwidth is strong and positive.

But that can suddenly change... Just look at the chart before August... see the nice rise that reversed in a heartbeat. That could happen here.

Now look at the top circle. See how the share price is high above upper Bollinger band?

There is a warning that a pullback is probable in one to two more days. I would much more like a slow climb on the inside of the upper Bollie than look at rockets like this.

Here are 2 more charts that I use





Beautiful!!! Every indicator is strongly bullish!!!

The ichimoku chart shows the share price soaring high above the clouds... in the circle you see thin blue/red lines. You want the blue above the red (which is the case here).... you see the blue line diverging nicely from the red.

Conclusion

This is a great stock... but I want to make sure to capture at least a 20% gain. That would be $14.55.

This is a pretty tight Limit stop-loss but if it does trip in the next day or so that will be fine. We will monitor this stock after the correction and may buy in again on a rebound.

If on the other hand it does not trip the stop loss and continues to rise, we will move the stop loss to follow the rise and gain more profits.

As of 10:40am MST I am entering a Limit Stop-loss order for BGCP as follows

Oct 2: Limit Stop Loss - 780 shares of BGCP at trigger of $14.55 to limit of $14.50

Good trading
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