SI
SI
discoversearch

Strategies & Market Trends : Underexposed Technical Analysis

 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Underexposed who wrote (166)9/30/2017 4:01:43 PM
From: Underexposed  Read Replies (1) of 185
 
Update of Fantasy Portfolio as of Sept 29, 2017- Excellent recovery

After two successive bad weeks where we fell from a gain of 6.4% down to 4.2%, we have recovered back to 6.2% as can be seen in the chart below. We have not lost any of our stocks to Limit Stop-loss orders though I am not so confident of their recovery to lift these orders right now.

Here is the overview chart



Actually during the week we flirted with an all-time high but we pulled back a bit. We are 5 months into this 12 months of investment as we started basically at the beginning of May. So if we continue at this success rate we will be on tap for about 12% return for the year which compares well to the average return of a successful long term portfolio of from 7% to 15%.

We will talk with some detail on a couple of the stocks that are doing well in a minute but first let us look at the Fantasy portfolio status as of Sept 29

Underexposed Fantasy Portfolio Value





Initial:
$100,000.00

Cash :
$12,601.39


Date Value %Gain/Loss
28-Apr
$100,000.00

5-May
$101,693.87
1.7%
12-May
$102,748.72
2.7%
19-May
$101,254.65
1.3%
26-May
$102,355.65
2.4%
2-Jun
$103,159.70
3.2%
9-Jun
$102,136.79
2.1%
16-Jun
$103,365.54
3.4%
23-Jun
$103,639.69
3.6%
30-Jun
$102,936.59
2.9%
7-Jul
$102,430.64
2.4%
14-Jul
$103,988.74
4.0%
21-Jul
$105,716.34
5.7%
28-Jul
$104,171.04
4.2%
4-Aug
$106,296.89
6.3%
11-Aug
$105,091.34
5.1%
18-Aug
$105,218.34
5.2%
25-Aug
$106,233.39
6.2%
1-Sep
$105,558.19
5.6%
8-Sep
$106,352.19
6.4%
15-Sep
$104,679.39
4.7%
22-Sep
$104,207.59
4.2%
29-Sep
$106,224.79
6.2%


Current Portfolio as of Sept 29, 2017




















Ticker Company Shares Price Value % Gain/loss












ETG
Eaton Vance Global Dividend income fund
590
$17.20
$10,148.00
2.69%
NOMD
Nomad Foods Ltd
760
$14.57
$11,073.20
11.05%
ECC
Eagle Point Credit Co. Inc.
490
$20.69
$10,138.10
1.42%
VMO
Invesco Municiple Opportunity Trust
750
$13.01
$9,757.50
-1.36%
BGCP
BGC Partners Inc.
780
$14.47
$11,286.60
19.69%
CROX
Crocs Inc
3000
$9.70
$29,100.00
2.86%
IAG
IAMGOLD
2000
$6.06
$12,120.00
-15.83%






























Total
$93,623.40


ORDERS












Sept 19 : Limit Stop Loss - 2000 shares of IAG at trigger of $5.80 to limit of $5.70




Sept 27: Limit Stop Loss - 750 shares of VMO at trigger of $12.89 to limit of $12.85




As you can see, we are getting close to triggering the limit stop-loss orders for IAG and VMO. Let's have a look at their trigger charts.



VMO has a chance of recovery, but being only about $0.25 away from tripping the Limit stop-loss, it is not something I'd bet the farm on. Currently you see it has fallen below the lower Bollie so I would expect a bit of a bounce to get back into the Bollie envelop again... a good sign would be to see it rise back to its 20daySMA . But looking at the indicators I don't have a great amount of hope for that right now. Both the MACD and BBWidth are still reaching for each other... if there was some indication of those indicators reversing I would feel more comfortable.

We would want something like you see in the IAG chart on about May 12... see how the MACD and BBwidth form a pinch and the Slow Sto reverse direction. Not even a hint of that reversal of fortune yet.

I call that formation a MACD/BBWidth Pinch and it usually indicates the end of a bear run.

IAG did not look too bad until Friday when it took that bad dip. It looked like it was progressing through its consolidation period but now you see the reversal of direction of all the indicators, though it is only one tick and that does not guarantee a trend reversal (the BBWidth rising is not good when the others are falling).

Of the two stocks I think IAG has the best chance of recovery.


Concerns about good performers



Of all our portfolio stocks, these to powered our recovery. Both stocks have risen over their upper bollies so there is a possibility of a pull back next week.

ETG is interesting... note how the share price has slowly climbed in value since mid-August. The Slow Sto and MACD continued to climb and lately the Slow Sto has spiked over 80. The BBwidth fell during this time and basically flatlined in Sept...(a slight hook Friday)

That spike on Friday seems to me to be the start of a bullish run. I think we will be above that upper bollie of its for two or three days. It certainly affirms the confidence when it had that dip in July. I certainly don't see a reversal for a while.... minor down ticks along the way of course.... but not a reversal.

BGCP WOW!!!... We have almost a 20% gain on this stock!!! I want to protect that gain but I don't want to slap a limit Stop-loss on it yet. Why? Because the indicators are very bullish right now... Slow Sto is pegged nicely over 80... the MACD and BBWidth have sharply increased their positive slopes.

But LOOK at how high it is above the upper Bollie!!! I don't want to set a Limit stop-loss and have a downward spike trip it and then watch the share price sail higher. IF we had a similar gain on Monday I would set a Limit stop-loss for a 20% gain.

There is NO resistance ahead of it.... in over 15 years it has not been near this height.... no way to suggest an ultimate high.

SO the best I can do is set a limit stop-loss at 20% and move it up as it rises, milking this thing as we go.... What a nice stock to own!!!

Here is a success story for patience



Remember back in August, I purchased this stock for this portfolio and the NEXT DAY it plummets from $9.50 to $8.75 in 2 days... Market timing was not my strong suit that day for sure, but no panic... I believed in what the financials showed me so I held on and my faith has been rewarded.

We are finally in the black on this stock. The Slow sto is firmly over 80... the MACD has a nice positive slope. The BBWidth has been flat and now hints at a break out. I see good things ahead for this stock for a while anyway.

Again.... thank you for the recommendations and Kitskid for his inquiry about ALA.TO. I enjoy posting on this thread and it is nice to see others like what I post.

Good Trading
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

Copyright © 1995-2017 Knight Sac Media. All rights reserved.Stock quotes are delayed at least 15 minutes - See Terms of Use.