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Technology Stocks : Silicon Motion Inc. (SIMO)
SIMO 51.78-0.4%Oct 20 8:10 PM EDTNews

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To: Elroy who wrote (1721)7/27/2017 10:14:47 PM
From: Elroy   of 1767
 
Eveidently Intel just reported, and said it now expects better than expected PC sales this year. That's good for SIMO's SSD controller business since Intel is one of their OEMs.

I haven't looked at WDC yet to see what they say about NAND production. But....in front of the big production Q3, there's no way NAND supply is going to loosen, the loosening (if it happens) should be more in Q4 and especially in Q1 2018. Q1 is always the lowest device manufacturing quarter, and by Q1 2018 the NAND makers transition to 3D NAND ramping to full production should be well on its way. I think the NAND makers generally make as much NAND as they can regardless of the end demand, so in Q1 2018 they should be increasing NAND production while demand (due to seasonality) is decreasing, so THAT quarter should be the real signal on what's the status of the NAND makers and their 3D NAND production. If it's still tight production at that time, then they've got real problems making 3D NAND. On the other hand, if 3D NAND manufacturing is progressing down the production curve normally, NAND prices should drop a good bit in Q1 2018, and the long awaited bump to SIMO's revenue growth should kick in (cheaper SSDs = more unit sales).

Unless SIMO loses some design slots before then.
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