|I noticed on the yahoo message board that you predicted that Simo was likely to reaffirm guidance. Why do you think that when every report shows that NAND is likely to stay tight for the rest of the year and possibly into 2018?|
It's more a hunch than anything else.
SIMO has said from the beginning that this year is back end loaded, because that's how their latest design wins roll out. And if Q2 was weak due to weakness in Chinese cell phone sales (eMMC controllers via SK Hynix) it makes sense that the Chinese (who seems to be doing well in terms of market share) cleared out inventory of older phones last Q, and now are going to build and launch lots of new models in H2 2017.
As for NAND tightness, the full year guidance was based on NAND being tight, and may be revised upward if 3D NAND production increases more than expected. So....it's hard to translate NAND tightness in Q3 (the big production quarter) into anything meaningful. If NAND is tight it's partly because demand for NAND is too strong, so, ya know, how do we map that into SIMO sales? If production is enough despite weak demand, then of course that's bad for SIMO. If production is OK, but still not enough to meet the amazingly strong demand, that's good.
The kiss of death for SIMO is not production or demand for NAND, it is design losses. Eventually demand and production will work themselves out, and NAND sales will grow (I think we all believe this). As long as SIMO still has it's design slots in their NAND-based devices, SIMO will grow along with NAND. On the other hand, if SK Hynix interalizes controller development, or MRVL takes share from SIMO, then that is lost sales that may not come back.
As for the report date, I didn't even think about that. Maybe they have a massive accounting problem, or maybe the CEO's son is getting married this week and he doesn't want to do a conference call. Who knows?