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Gold/Mining/Energy : Orbite Aluminae
ORT 0.29+13.7%Dec 18 3:57 PM ESTNews

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To: morongobill who wrote (4737)5/4/2013 11:40:36 AM
From: Omega_Wolf14 Recommendations  Read Replies (3) of 6295
 
Isn't that the central point? And isn't dissecting the verbs describing the same action pedantic? Whatever we call it whether faith or assessement - the fact is that upon perception our own values, characteristics, inclinations are all operating simultaneously along with the 'information' itself.

I agree with your points. I just feel it might be valuable to understand that your own 'neutrality' of position is already full of your own decisions about information for example: "The Veolia deal is a no- brainer for all parties". I agree with that. Some don't believe that at all. Read Kidl's recent comments. I'm not arguing with Kidl either. It's just one more person's opinion in a sea of people's opinions.

My opinion is that if Orbite isn't close to signing a 3 way JV for SGA once the exact details are finalized then they're either liars or extremely stupid. Since I don't believe they're either of those, I suspect those are pretty much the facts on that topic. Others don't. Beyond that are political/religious 'discussions' which all take on a certain similarity I would describe as acrimonious. Not sure what the object is except to vent pre-established points of view.

I haven't read a point of view about Veolia I can agree with except my own which is that Veolia is 'in heat' about red mud without reference to Orbite Aluminae.

My assessement is that Orbite is likely right about what is going wrong and what it takes to fix that and I've done the numbers several times where there is no new information to change anything. That fix moves the plant to 3T/D and puts in the separation circuit. That opens the path to 5N or better. That set up running somewhere near capacity is a cash flow positive situation. With that they can wait for red mud and SGA to evolve. Remember that if they get an SGA plant up, they will be making it at revolutionary cost. That is another reason why I think the JV is going ahead. People that think that JV is only going to involve SGA for the home countries are fooling themselves.

Orbite's break even is 3 T/D of 4N with some 4N5 to equal the $12M expense base. I'll need to look up Whaspe's two posts to see if it's covered whether Orbite could hobble above 1 T/D by tinkering with today's installed tech. I think the answer was no.

In my opinion the only decision investors should be making is whether Orbite can raise the funds they need for the equipment and time delay. On that topic I think some people have rocks for brains or are willfully blind.

The shorting is long gone as I pointed out right away. The stock is moving sideways as I predicted. Get used to the lower price I said a month ago because we all know why we came down but it needs a reason to go up.

So here's a new comment. When Orbite makes it's next breakthrough it won't be facing a large shorting campaign. That group is being investigated and has shut down. We now watch 6,000 shares facing 29,000 shares for half an hour without a trade regularly. Neither side is interested in moving the price either way.

So, everyone can 'conclude' by faith or whatever wiji you do, whatever they like. I say that among the 190,000,000 shares there is sufficient smart and connected money that we would be long gone and I mean long gone if there was a whiff of death within the innermost circles.

You really do have to have rocks in your head to suddenly differentiate this particluar $30M as being completely different from every other time over eight years of raising funds. Orbite has had it easy. Why this stock has been so high for so many years on average would be a mystery to me if I didn't understand 'believers'. So on two counts its foolish. One is that because they used 'equity' to collateralize some of the money they want, the dim perceive a change in state where none occurred. Orbite had something to collateralize with for the first time in their lives and used it. And two, the believers haven't gone anywhere by the main.

The markets know that nothing is happening right now. They've been told that but the overall sentiment can swamp this boat now in a heartbeat. And that sentiment is that if the stock drops it will be bought and if it rises it will be sold all at lower volumes without panic. Now what the heck does that tell you? It certainly doesn't mean the powerful and connected think this glitch is life threatening. And it doesn't mean the remaining short positions smell an opportunity. So what does it mean? Whatever you want and you've already made up your mind about that however you protest. So have I.

I hold all my shares at 2.83. I expect a quiet May with some potential drops and returns or rises and returns. I don't expect a quiet June. By then we'll know how they're doing it or if that remains confidential - that they're doing it. If they come to the market obviously we will know that.

When I step back which I have done recently, I summarize that Orbite has solved every challenge it encountered. The impossible plant is up. It even works. It can't achieve the full goal because a mistake in concept was made which has to be corrected. It may not even be the last challenge for that plant. But it is the next one and it's likely the only serious one for HPA. Remember every step over the years to get to here.

So what do you do? You get a blanket offering authorized. You tighten your belt. You work hard to get orders. And you decide how to proceed solving the one thing inbetween you and success. Pending orders for specific product you are almost certainly low cost provider on.

I know one thing for sure here. If there was a hint of a whiff that this delay was life threatening this stock would be pennies for weeks already. Instead over half the remaining shorts have covered again after over half the shorts covering by mid April. There are now only 2.5 million shorts left down from over 10 million end of Feb.

Do you smell death in the air? I don't.
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