" but doubt seriously that SRSR will get there unless there is more to this than we know. Sense, correct me where I am wrong."
I'd missed some bits of that... if the issue addressed in yours was focused on the dollar plus price target in $ as SRSR shares equivalent, rather than the probability we'll not be seeing SRSR values in dollars per share... rather than Niostar share values as those milestones are reached ?
Have addressed part of that, already, just as a function of time... If they do succeed in bringing Nemegosenda to production, then, in, say, five years time... there's no reason at all I see that the SRSR equivalent share price wouldn't exceed a dollar or two...
There's also the pseudo-Rumsfeldian issue to consider, in the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns, only, in this case with those not really being bad things to have as "risk factors"... rather than potential upside that we don't know about now...
So, in the category of known unknowns... we already know there is "more to this than we know"... because there's another 80% of the deposit structure surface still left to explore... also "more" laterally and at depth in the known portions of the deposit... There are also known unknowns in terms of what the specific REE values might be, in different parts of the structure. and also "other" mineral values... perhaps including copper, gold, PGE's... which are not uncommon in carbonitites. Unknown unknowns? Who knows...
Some of the answer to your question in terms of how rapidly value might grow, is thus a function of 1. what the next rounds in exploration look like, and 2. the timing on which they attack efforts to address some of the larger unknowns... both of which are also unknowns, themselves... naturally including that we can't know the results of those efforts, yet ?
Some is probably fairly predictable... If they do more work to add resolution to the Hawke Zone and expand it... we can probably guess reasonably well what sorts of mineral values they'll find, and what sort of value that effort might add... If they do similar work to better define the potential of the SE II Zone... it's pretty much a wild card, still, at this point, what that new zone might prove to contain "on average" with a higher resolution look... My guess is that it has good potential to exceed Hawke zone average values...
I don't think they've drilled tested any of the magnetic lows, yet... so there could easily be some very large surprises lurking in the REE values, or in others, like gold, in parts of the structure that aren't expected to feature high niobium values... The massive scale of Nemegosenda might come into play, there, again, particularly if some of the event sequences in the deposition history prove to have generated isolated events featuring particular interest in specific REE elements.
I don't know what others are thinking about how best to attack the exploration problems...
I tend to think it's probably going to be useful to move fairly quickly to try to test a couple more of the untested "bits" around the structure circumference... as getting a better bead on the structure and composition of the whole "donut" sooner could easily save, literally, multiple billions in wasted exploration expenditures and Capex to develop other potentials. So, I'd think it prudent to spend 5% or more early on swinging for the fences... which admittedly is probably not a thing that would make much sense in any other situation, where the scaling and market concentration issues aren't as dramatic as they are here...
If one or a couple of those unknowns do turn into large, surprising, knowns ? Then, "more to this than we know" could quickly become the focus of the story... when it becomes a known... with comparable implication in price.
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