|"What the top end might be"... ???|
I don't intend this as a criticism... just as I wasn't addressing you specifically in terms of my comment on patience in my prior post.
But, "what the top end might be"... isn't actually anything that is overly relevant in the context of the discussion of "fair value" in the context right now ? What I mean by that is that... everything changes IF and WHEN we do see SRSR providing proofs that they ARE succeeding in their plans for bringing Nemegosenda to production ?
So, a "top end" in TRADING that results from a proof that the critics were wrong... is one short term issue... but, it's not useful to confuse that with the result in VALUE that results from longer term success in creating a business in the longer term. What a future business that results from success might be worth... is a completely different issue...
There's an issue of SCALE in the errors people make in valuation... that matters in that context. And, there's an issue of TIMING... including that most people are vastly too impatient when it comes to the reality that positive accomplishments in building a business DOES take time... and, even, that change in market perception takes time, even after the fact of real change that has already occurred that generates "inevitability".
You can see that easily enough in the performance of other penny stocks that have succeeded in growing real businesses...
MSFT didn't happen overnight. AAPL... languished for years at a couple dollars, even AFTER they'd made the changes in the business that virtually assured their future successes would occur. QCOM at $2 is a classic example that many like to flog... but, others have done more, faster... often even without comment from anyone. Social awareness seems tied to the size of the company, and not the size of the success in any investment. Drama often enough occurs, and rapidly, in shell stocks that go from "nothing" to having "real businesses" placed in them... with overnight transformations in the result being not uncommon. I had one of those, not that long ago, that ran from $0.05 to $8 in only a month or two. And, no one noticed. The difference between those sort... and real businesses that already exist, that make changes, and change in price only by virtue of succeeding, over time, even when "some" in the markets are betting they won't.... ? They tend to take longer... as real success in business tends to take some bit of time to deliver... but, that's still mostly a function of how large an error in judgement has been made by those losing their bets... and how long the success takes to prove, and how large the steps taken in recognition are, when they occur.
So, a couple years back, I noted that there was a change in management at QCOR... I did the analysis, and determined the new management had a plan that would work, and had the ability to make it work, which would result in them growing the business, where prior management had failed... The critics disagreed... and were aggressive in their market efforts... but, they were wrong. So, if you were right about the changing prospects for QCOR's future BUSINESS in mid 2007... based on what you could see in their changed prospects... what would have been reasonable in predicting a "top end" for QCOR stock in mid 2007 ?
The range in fact was from a low of $0.21 in July of 2007 to a high, thus far, of $58.91 in July of 2012.
That's the "nature" of the scale in market error, with change that occurs, and that is the nature of my focus here... in thinking it will be useful to hold shares waiting for the business to prove successful.
What the future business might be worth really has no relationship at all to what the share price is right now ?
It is a logical error of attachment that people are subject to... that has them make that mistake...
SRSR has the rocks. The world needs niobium. SRSR has the best undeveloped potential I've been able to identify... and, if they develop what they have into a mine, that mine should enable them in meeting growing world demand over the next couple of decades... with what is clearly the lowest Capex and highest ROI of the potentials out there I've seen, with a deposit that has the only real low cost ability to meet virtually all of the demand growth that might happen... ?
So, is that right ? Is that presentation of the "business case"... correct ? Or not ?
Is the market for niobium, and its inevitable growth in demand, what I've said it is ?
Is it true that SRSR has the rocks ? And true their rocks give them that advantage versus others ?
IF that's right... what's the difference between SRSR and CBMM, now ? And, what's the difference between what SRSR and CBMM might look like... in, say, ten years time ?
What has to happen to put SRSR's business on that track... to enable it to succeed... ?
I don't disagree with others in thinking that the valuation questions here in the short term are tied to validation of FACTS that the market has been discounting... improperly, in my judgement.
So, I agree with others that it's reasonable to think that SRSR will revisit and exceed prior highs when the situation changes in a way that validates that as reasonable and necessary...
I think it's reasonable enough to project that SRSR might be priced at $0.50 to $1 in trading with a bit of success in the effort in moving their projects forward, from where they are now, when the current price has already discounted that as a possibility... And, with changes in the markets ? More isn't unreasonable.
But, that's still a different question than "what the business might be worth in the future"... as, say, when Nemegosenda is in production, and it is meeting niobium demand growth, while taking market share away from other existing or potential producers... ?
What "the top end" might be... depends on WHEN... and "what the business is"... in the market that exists, then?
FWIW, growing niobium demand is currently being met mostly by expanded production from CBMM... and they recently sold a 15% interest in their operation for $4 billion dollars ? That showed them as worth $26 billion dollars... before the recent increases in their output ? What sort of investment would be required to create a similarly valuable business... in Chapleau ? How long would it take to happen, given the pace of growth in the niobium demand ?
A SRSR share might trade for $5 or $10 or more... in the future... depending on what happens in development of the business, and depending on what happens in demand for niobium, niobium pricing, and the stock markets, and the markets valuation of basic commodity producers, over the next couple of years, or decades... and, of course, depending on TIME... and, there's nothing in the least bit outrageous or unreasonable about noting that "potential"...
The first issue is... properly identifying the potential.
The second issue is... doing what's required for the potential to be realized...