|If there are no new shares coming to market, there is no dilution, and that is true by definition. The rest being posted on this subject is abject blather.|
Simply is a FACT that the effort being made to convince people that SRSR is "over-valued" now... for any among a long list of excuses flogged... has already long since spent itself advancing similar blather. No one is buying it now.
Renewing the effort as SRSR approaches market inflection points... hoping to convince people that up is down, that bad is good, etc., before any changes occur that might alter the company's position in the market ?
It's just a FACT that niobium demand is hard wired to grow for the next few decades...
SRSR has the rocks... better rocks than any other undeveloped potential that has been identified... and, in fact, better rocks than some of the already developed "potentials". The values in the rocks are what they are... the value of niobium in the market is what it is... and SRSR's rocks will be made worth more over time as a function of market change occurring, including that which is routine as a function as development proceeds.
From where SRSR is now, relatively small changes in the market, or in SRSR's position within the market, or changes occurring in the larger market context, can easily and dramatically alter SRSR subsidiary Niostar's present and future value.
Niobium prices are unlikely to remain where they are, now, given the combination of an existing virtual monopoly subsidized by Brazil, "emergent resource nationalism" and demand growth.
Oddly, that appears likely to make the current beneficiaries of the Brazilian niobium monopoly the primary victims of the position they've worked hard to craft... as the benefits of a "single point risk" in supply become significantly less beneficial.
There are no other development alternatives out there... that can come close to matching Nemegosenda's economics. There are no other development alternatives out there that combine the scope and scale of Nemegosenda... with the flexibility to tailor Capex requirements across the range of potential... from adding a few percent more to global supply... to matching and replacing or exceeding CBMM's current output.
The supply risk factor, by itself, virtually REQUIRES that Nemegosenda must be developed. NOT developing Nemegosenda... imposes alternative cost in Capex imposed in developing others... that are orders of magnitude larger, still without any comparable ability to address or reduce risk.
Some have focused on Nemegosenda having "billions" in the value of the rocks. And, that value is there in the rocks. But, the factor that matters far more is that mining it from Nemegosenda imposes billions LESS in Capex relative to the capital that would be required to enable any reasonable potential alternative that could match Nemegosenda in production potential.
Niobium demand will continue to grow for the next couple of decades... perhaps by more than 10X or 20X over the next two decades... and there simply are not 10 or 20 CBMM equivalent potentials lurking out there to enable that sort of supply growth.
Nemegosenda is the only potentially "disruptive" element out there in the niobium landscape... in much the same way that Mountain Pass was the only potentially "disruptive" element in the REE landscape a few years back.
Change will need to occur for that to matter... in much the same way that change was required to move the Mountain Pass property from a dormant past producer seen as an environmental liability, back to being a world class producing mine capable of meeting a large fraction of world demand on its own.
When that change does occur... SRSR holders appear well positioned to benefit as much as the owners of the Mountain Pass property were in position to benefit as the redevelopment of Mountain Pass proceeded from "an obvious environmental liability no one wants to own" back to "a must have world class source of REE minerals"...
There is an "inevitability" factor that is driven by the reality that exists that the rocks impose. As at Mountain Pass, that inevitability factor existing HERE, because of what the rocks require, doesn't require that it will "happen all by itself"... rather than requiring "an proper effort being made" to convert the potential into reality.
But, the BENEFIT of making that happen is now equally as apparent as it was for Mountain Pass a few years back...
The only other difference appears it is that it is SRSR, and not former Mountain Pass owner Chevron, who owns Nemegosenda... ?
NOT developing Nemegosenda... will impose alternative capital costs on the Steel Industry... that will be many BILLIONS more.