|InvestmentHouse Weekend Market Update by Jon Johnson|
- Stocks answer Thursday with a solid, albeit modest in comparison, rebound.
- Indices up but still below key levels after the Thursday selloff.
- Commodities bounce, but it is weak, much weaker than stocks overall.
- Friday was light on data but what was out there was not positive.
- A western hemisphere economic power and China agree not to use dollars.
- Recent leadership, big name leaders still look quite savory.
- Earnings results and warnings are upon us and the early tabulations leaning heavily toward misses.
- Stocks bounce, still look good for an upside move, just need the leaders to keep their patterns moving.
Close but no cigar. A good bounce Friday in response to the selloff, but still hills to climb.
Stocks rebounded on Friday after the Thursday gut punch. It was a solid and credible rebound, although it paled in comparison to the selloff on Thursday. Moreover, NASDAQ and the SP500 failed to take out the 50 day EMA. SP500 failed to recapture the range it had on Tuesday but gave up on Thursday. NASDAQ just cracked above the range of resistance but failed at the 50 day EMA. Close but no cigar. I am not talking about the infamous Bill Clinton cigar; I am talking about Big Jake, the John Wayne and Richard Boone movie. John Wayne looked as if he was beaten, and Richard Boone said, "Close but no cigar, mister," referring to the fact that John Wayne almost pulled it off. Of course the Duke made the comeback, rescued the kid, got the gold back, and just about righted all the wrongs in the world. Your typical John Wayne movie.
The day may have been close but no cigar, but it did what it needed to do. In the face of that Thursday selloff, stocks rebounded and put in a credible move. More than that, the stocks we have been watching in the biotech area, drugs in particular, and the household name-brand leaders which started to lead the market back to the upside did pretty well. Looking at biotech, NKTR bounced to the upside on a good volume surge. That might have something to do with the Russell rebalance on the day. At the end of the day the Russell indices were rebalanced, and that caused a lot of buying and selling of stocks within those indices based upon their valuation increases or decreases. That ramped up the volume on the session similar to an expiration volume.
We did see good moves in the biotech drugs. We also saw the good moves in other stocks that have been leading the move but that took a hit on Thursday. CMG bounced where it needed to off near support. PCLN held the line where it needed to and bounced. These are not huge moves, but they are doing what they need to. ISRG had a nice bounce to the upside off of the test. That is exactly what we needed to see happen, and it bodes well for the attempt to continue this move off of the Thursday selling.
On Thursday night I stuck my neck out and said I still believe the market would try to rally again before any major selloff to the downside. It still feels that the Fed has to announce some kind of Quantitative Easing or further liquidity stimulus, so I think we will get that rally to the upside. It is just a question of how far it will go. I do not think it will break into new high territory; I think it will just test them. That will probably be it. Then the market turns back over and starts selling toward a late summer/early fall US economic recession. Glum news for a Friday, but you have to call it as you see it. Otherwise you get blindsided or the old Field of Dreams "in your ear."
Looking at the intraday chart, there is something of a parabolic move from the Thursday selloff into the Friday rally, but it is quite lopsided. The moves upside on Friday are nowhere compared to the downside slump on Thursday. Nonetheless, stocks put in a somewhat choppy morning but found their footing at lunch. Then they rallied nicely into the close, putting in a decent move and completing the week doing what it had to do. That was to come back against that Thursday break higher.
SP500, +0.72%; NASDAQ, +1.17%; Dow, +0.53%; SP600, +1.28%; SOX, +1.59%.
On any other day, those would be very good numbers. Juxtaposed against the Thursday 2%+ selloff, however, they do not look that stellar. The indices and individual stocks did what they needed to do, and that was to bounce some from the Thursday selling. The question is whether they will continue the move into next week or run out of juice. They are at a critical level. We saw SP500 at the 50 day EMA, bumping up against that important level. Lots of work to do, but at least it gave itself the chance to do it. That is what counts, at least for Friday.
There was not a lot of news on Friday. What was out there was not that positive. German business confidence hit a two-year low and was down for the second month straight. We also have to remember that the various and sundry banks were downgraded on Thursday evening by Moody's. But they had a decent day. BAC tapped its 50 day EMA on the low and rebounded with a decent gain. Financials overall did quite well. MA had an outstanding move. You have a double bottom with handle on the lower trendline of its ascending channel. It broke nicely to the 50 day EMA.
There was not an overall negative reaction to the downgrades. As I said on Thursday, that could mean the bottom for financials for now as they rally to the upside with the overall market bouncing. It does not mean they will continue the move and break to new highs, but it very well could mark the bottom for this round of selling. They look pretty good.
Earnings misses and warnings in all the wrong places.
Darden Restaurants miss on earnings, same store sales, lower guidance.
Olive Garden chefs sample the sauce.
'It needs something . . . '
'Yeah, someone to eat it.'
Other news out there was bothersome. It is that string of earnings and warnings that we have seen. DRI (Olive Garden and Red Lobster) missed on earnings. Same store sales were quite low, and it lowered its guidance. In the picture of Olive Garden chefs sampling the sauce, one says, "It needs something." The other says, "Yeah, someone to eat it." Apparently do not have as much traffic at the stores as consumers feel the pinch of zero wage growth. It is actual negative wage growth when adjusted for inflation. They have used their savings; they have taken what they could from their houses, and now their houses are worth much less. Their wages just are not growing to keep up with prices.
You can only spend for so long when you are spending at a deficit, particularly when you cannot get credit. We have tons of potential liquidity, but it is similar to Tantalus in Greek mythology. He could not reach the grapes or apples, and when he bent down to try to quench his thirst with water, it receded below him. Of course there was the classic Star Trek "Dagger of the Mind" on the Tantalus colony.
We have tons of liquidity. We do not have a liquidity problem in the world and in the United States; we have an inability to reach the liquidity. Mortgage lending standards are too high. Lending standards to small businesses are too high. That is always the case whenever we try to come out of a recession. The banks, financial agencies, and overseers learn their lesson after the cows have left the barn. They make standards tough after we have crashed and when we need the money.
I have talked to several small businesses, and WFC has contacted them recently about small loans. Many of them said, "We tried to get a small loan from you a year or two ago, but you turned us down." The people from WFC act astounded that that could have possibly happened. That is just the way it is. They say one thing, but you cannot get the money. We have heard this over and over again. Thus our economy stumbles along. There is no money if you want it, and there is the uncertainty with the debt crisis, the fiscal crisis, the tax crisis, and with the health care tax crisis. Small businesses just do not feel that confident with hiring. Is there any wonder there is no hiring? You can see it. You want it but you cannot have it. That is kind of like the President. He does not understand why businesses will not hire when the ones apparently seem to have the money.
Getting back to the market, the indices did what they had to do, albeit not in a spectacular move that took back key levels.
Dollar. 1.2560 versus 1.2557 euro. The dollar was about flat on the session, losing a bit of ground. It was up and then down. It closed losing just a bit of ground, basically flat on the day. It was a big move on Thursday. Why? Because no Fed intervention and no cheapening of the money. Therefore it recovered some of the losses of the prior three weeks.
Bonds. 1.67% versus 1.61% 10 year US Treasury. Big losses as bonds fell below the 20 day EMA. They did remain in the three week lateral move. Not too much of an issue. The thing is, if there is no worry in the rest of the world, there is no need to run to safety in the US Treasury market. If there is fear, you will see treasuries rally and yields decline. There was not too much fear out there on Friday. There was not too much fear of the Fed buying either as bonds gave up fairly substantial ground on the 10 year.
Gold. 1,566.80, -1.30. Gold was utterly pounded on Thursday. It managed the most modest of rebounds, showing a doji right at the close from Thursday. It may very well be a continuation doji; in other words, it continues lower. Although the gold price is down four straight sessions, and perhaps after a selloff near the bottom of the range, it would be ripe for a rebound.
This all depends on what the Fed will do with the dollar. If it wants to gut the dollar with more Quantitative Easing, then gold will surge. Many people anticipate that gold will surge higher. The problem is the interim. What will it do? I will say that gold is safe inside the range that has formed off of the mid-May low.
Oil. 79.73, +1.53. Oil rebounded. It was beaten badly on the week, falling sharply on Thursday and Friday. It did manage to break through a support level that extends back to the summer of 2011. It rebounded on Friday, but it was unable to take back that level. The indices were unable to take back certain key levels that they gave up after they just took them on Tuesday. So they really did not want them. No follow-through. I will talk about that in the charts.
We will look at what happens to oil next week. It has rebounded up to resistance after breaking below the bottom of its two and a half week range, a range that looked quite solid. The bottom caved and it is testing now. What are the odds that it will break higher? Not much, particularly if the dollar remains relatively strong on no Quantitative Easing. If the dollar breaks, we could see oil rebound. As the dollar falls, it takes more dollars to buy every barrel of oil.
More on the dollar: Brazil and China agree to a currency swap.
For this discussion, please see the Video Market Summary.
Market Overview Video
Here's to the renmimbi. Brazil and China agree to a currency swap.
First in western hemisphere and the largest economy to do so.
Cashin: Cannot raise rates or let them rise as our debt would surge. We have covered this before. If the 10 year rose to 4% our debt would triple or more. Whether he wants to or not Bernanke is forced to manipulate rates.
Volume. NASDAQ +27%, 2.25B; NYSE +6%, 832M. Why the lopsided volume? A lot of the Russell stocks trade on the NASDAQ, and there was a rebalance on Friday. That means a lot of buying and selling in those stocks as portfolios are adjusted to reflect the market cap percentage of each of those stocks in the new readjusted indices.
Breadth. NASDAQ 2.4:1; NYSE 2.2:1. Breadth was decent.
SP500. You can see that inverted head and shoulders. You can also see that Thursday tried to break up the whole pattern. It cast the move right back down to the neckline. Stocks bounced where they had to on Friday but did not get through the 50 day EMA or that February 2011 peak. SP500 has a lot of work cut out for it next week. I still believe that looking at the strength of a lot of the brand names as well as the sectors that are getting money (biotech, drugs), SP500 could bounce. Financials are still getting money, and that is so key for SP500.
DJ30. Not really a different tale here. The 50 day EMA is still blocking it. Same drop, holding at the neckline as well. We just need to see a break to the upside. It most likely follows SP500 if it moves.
NASDAQ. NASDAQ showed the same action. Up to the 50 day EMA, just cracking into the higher trading range, but it was nothing significant. No real break here. It is too close to make a call that it broke back up. We see the same action with the inverted head and shoulders. We also see solid action from a lot of big NASDAQ stocks that look ready to move higher. If they move higher, NASDAQ moves higher as well.
SP600. SP600 bounced off of the 200 day EMA, put in a decent percentage gain, but they are still mired in their pattern. Definitely followers and not leaders. With the economy struggling as it is, that makes a lot of sense. SP600 will follow NASDAQ and company higher if they break higher. I do not believe it will lead because I am looking for a rollover in the market as they maybe challenge the prior highs. If that is the case, that would be in advance of a recession. Thus the small caps would not be really running hard in any event.
SOX. SOX bounced modestly off of support as well, but it did not put in that much of a move. It is at the neckline as well. It could bounce from here, but it never made it past this upper point of its resistance channel. I do not look for much from the semiconductors. It is not the time of year for them anyway, even if things were better and the prospects for economic improvement were better.
'Name Brand' stocks. I noted that the NASDAQ leaders were still looking sold. PCLN looks good, and ISRG looks just fine. Of course there is the old standby AAPL. It continues to work on its pattern as well. There are still big names in NASDAQ that can rally and produce very nice gains for us.
Financial/Financial Services. It is not just limited to NASDAQ. There are financial and consumer stocks in the NYSE that look fine. MA had a great move. CME looks as if it is ready to bounce. V was blasting off to the upside in a new rally high. V could very well be worth taking a buy here even though it was up 4.5% on Friday. With a little pullback on Monday, it may be a good one to move into. There is strength in financials and financial-related companies on the NYSE. That tells you that the Fed is likely going to act based on the actions of these stocks that would do well with more liquidity pushed into the system.
Drugs. NKTR is looking good. HZNP gapped above the 200 day EMA. ARNA had a tougher day, but look at the move that it has had.
These areas are very hot because money is growing in their direction. We have the leadership groups of financials, biotech drugs, and then the big-name stocks that most people seem to love. They are all moving up very well.
TO VIEW THE ECONOMY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Economy Summary Video
Earnings outlooks are not looking so good.
It should not be surprising. The economy is slowing, companies are hiring even less, and companies are starting to warn and indeed miss on earnings. When China, India and Brazil were still expanding a two and three years back the US multinational corporations cleaned up. They were laying off, consolidating, and selling a lot of product overseas. They made a lot of money, kept a lot of it offshore, and had no reason to hire here. Remember, GE and many of its large cap brethren have been jobs losers for years even when they enjoy profit growth.
Now the story has changed. We are an export nation now as per the desires of our President. The small business, entrepreneur class has not only been neglected but openly attacked with a deluge of record keeping regulations that sap time and money from businesses who have neither to spend on intrusive and excessive government oversight. With taxes and particularly regulations, this government has stifled our small business class, the main creator of innovation and wealth in the US.
With the big economies our multinationals sell to slowing, so are profits. This time we don't have a small business class to fall back on and keep our economy growing. Exports drying up, no internal engine to grow the economy. Thus corporate profits, and outlooks, are heading south.
Pepsi, Federal Express, Phillip Morris, Procter and Gamble, Bed Bath and Beyond, United Technologies (industrial products) and now Darden (restaurants) have all either missed earnings, warned, or see a slowdown here or coming.
Thus far there are 3.6 warnings for every 1 raise of earnings expectations. That is the worst ratio since Q3 2001. A slowing world economy and a slowing US economy make comps to 2011 much harder. Expectations will need to be taken lower.
Before that, however, the market has a window to rally back up to or very near the prior highs before earnings season hits full bloom and spooks investors as to just how bad the US economy is getting. We want to play that move but we also need to be aware of the limits of a further rally. It can test the prior highs, hit them, even surpass them (particularly if another QE is announced), but we do not believe it can overcome the drag from the economic slowdown here in the US.
VIX: 18.11; -1.97
VXN: 19.12; -1.66
VXO: 17.9; -1.89
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.99; -0.13
Bulls versus Bears
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market, then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 37.2% versus 37.2%. Holding steady but it will be interesting to see how Thursday impacts next week's numbers. Bulls moved back over 35% after hitting 34% and below that key 35% level. The market moved on the fall. Now we see if it can continue. Hard drop to 34 from 39.3% as economic reality and a choppy stock market hit, but the firming has the bulls lifting their heads again. Off the 55+ level hit in late February. That was the highest level since April and May of 2011, the peak of the post-bear market high. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. To be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.
Bears: 25.6% versus 26.6%. After two weeks at 26.6% bears fell. Market bounces do that. Unlike bulls, bears never did get close to the 35% level that is very bullish. It is always the best signal of bulls and bears cross paths so to speak. Not bad given the bulls action, but not the best signal. Over 35% is the threshold to be really be a good upside indicator. For reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
Stats: +33.33 points (+1.17%) to close at 2892.42
Volume: 2.246B (+27.4%)
Up Volume: 3.2B (+2.941B)
Down Volume: 1.22B (-300M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.38 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 3.93 to 1
New Highs: 71 (+25)
New Lows: 53 (+4)
Stats: +9.51 points (+0.72%) to close at 1335.02
NYSE Volume: 832M (+5.72%)
Up Volume: 4.18B (+3.914B)
Down Volume: 1.93B (-1.83B)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.22 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 4.31 to 1
New Highs: 45 (-3)
New Lows: 39 (0)
Stats: +67.21 points (+0.53%) to close at 12640.78
Volume: 210M shares Friday versus 146M shares Thursday.
We have a huge week next week. Huge. I cannot say that enough. Huge. Maybe that is enough. We have a lot of data. Consumer confidence, durables orders, pending home sales, Q1 GDP revisions. We also have personal income and spending, Chicago PMI, and the Michigan Sentiment final. On Monday we likely get the Supreme Court's ruling on the Obamacare case as well as the Arizona immigration case. These are such important issues facing us for the election as well as for the economy. It is so entwined and such a large part of our economy.
We will have earnings as well. As I have said, the earnings are worrisome because we have so many misses coming up. We have seen more misses now versus upside surprises. That is not really surprising given that everyone says profits are slowing down. The economy is slowing down. We are going into a recession in our view, so you expect things to slow. That does not mean the market necessarily has to fall because everyone thinks it will. I believe the market will try to rally into earnings, and then it will set itself up for a fall. I believe it will try to break back up, realizing that the Fed will have to act.
The Fed cannot worry about what the stock market is doing; it has to worry about what jobs are doing. Jobs are what it staked its claim on, so it will have a problem with jobs if there is an issue. We could see a move before the June/early-July jobs report. Why? Because the Fed gets it ahead of time. If it sees that things are bad, it may want to avoid a shock to the market and provide stimulus. There is risk. People might panic and say, "What is wrong with things?" But overall the market will like that because it wants more liquidity. It wants that extra Quantitative Easing stimulus. We could very well see that happen, but it will not happen soon. I believe the market will rise in anticipation of that event, however. There are just so many good-looking patterns from the household names and from other areas including financials, the biotech drugs, and a scattering of stocks here and there that continue to hold up well.
After we get a move to the upside, I am worried about a rollover. But we will play what the market gives us. When it starts to roll, we will probably naturally start migrating out of those just as we naturally started migrating into drugs and biotech as they started to perform better. That is just the way it works. We will be watching for positive, still upside moves. If things do not work out, we will have to have some downside. But when we have the good household brand names ready to move up, we want to take advantage of those because money tends to pile into them like crazy when they move. It is the same with the other areas that are still getting money. When money started to run into them, they can make impressive moves.
We have to worry about earnings coming down the road. We have to worry about more data coming down the road. We have to worry about Europe, no doubt. But the market understands all of that, and it is still holding up (albeit Thursday was a challenge). It anticipates liquidity as a result of all of this news. Additional liquidity will give us a move upside in the market. It will not be like QE1 or as good as QE2, but it is a move we can play. The market is setting itself up to continue back up to these prior highs. Maybe it breaks beyond them only to roll over from there. We will let the market tell us what it will do at that point, but we will continue to look for the good sectors that are moving well and the household names that are moving. We picked up some of those already last week. We will see if there are any others that we can get into or that can provide us a good entry point to take advantage while the market gives us the upside move. As noted, I do not think it will be there later in the summer. But the market will have its final say on that.
We will just get ready for the next one. It will be a big. It is history in the making. If you keep a journal, you will be writing a lot. There will be some very interesting stuff coming up. Have a great weekend!
Support and resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2892.42
The 50 day EMA at 2894
2900 is the March 2012 low
2910 is the recent March 2012 low
2962 is the April 2012 low
3000 is the February 2012 post-bear market high
3026 from 10/2000 low
3042 from 5/2000 low
3090 is the mid-March interim high
3134 is the March 2012 post-bear market peak
3227 is the April 2000 intraday low
3401 is the May 2000 closing low
2888 is the May 2011 peak and PRIOR post-bear market high
2879 is the July 2011 peak
2862 is the 2007 peak
2841 is the February 2011 peak
2816 is the early April 2011 peak.
2810 is the low in the shoulders
The 200 day SMA at 2785
2754 is the October 2011 high
2706 to 2705 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 and consolidation low (bottom of the trading range) 2723 to 2705 is the range of support at the bottom of the January to May trading range
2686 is the January 2011 closing low
2676 is the January 2010 low and the December 2011 peak
2645-2650ish from December 2010 consolidation
2643 is the September 2011 high
2612 is the late August 2011 peak
2603 is the March 2011 intraday low (post-Japan low)
2599 is the June 2011 low and NASDAQ
2593 is the November intraday high
2580 is the November 2010 closing high
2555 is the mid-August 2011 peak
2535 is the November island reversal gap point
2441 is the November 2011 low
S&P 500: Closed at 1335.02
1340 is the early April 2011 peak
The 50 day EMA at 1339
1344 is the February 2011 peak
1357 is the July 2011 peak
1359 is the April 2012 low
1371 is the May 2011 peak, the post-bear market high
1378 is the February 2012 peak
1422.38 is the Post-bear market high (March 2012)
1425 from May 2008 closing highs
1433 from August 2007 closing lows
1440 from November 2007 closing lows
1332 is the early March 2011 peak
1309 is the right shoulder low from June 2012
1295 to 1294 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 consolidation low (bottom of the trading range)
1293 is the October 2011 peak
The 200 day SMA at 1295
1275 is the January 2010 low, early January 2011 peak
1267 is the December 2011 peak
1258 is June 2011 intraday low
1255 is the late December 2010 consolidation range
1249 is the March 2011 low (post-Japan)
1235 is the mid-December 2010 consolidation low
1231 is the late August 2011 peak
1227 is the November 2010 peak
1220 is the April 2010 peak
1209 is the mid-August 2011 high
1196 is the November 2010 consolidation peak
1178-1180 is the October 2010/November 2010 consolidation low
1158 is the November 2011 low
1131 - 1127 from August 2010 base peak.
1119 is the early August closing low
1109 is the mid-September 2010 gap up point
1101 is the August 2011 low
1099 from the mid-July interim peak
1075 is the October 2011 intraday low
Dow: Closed at 12,640.78
The 50 day EMA at 12,679
12,716 is the April 2012 closing low
12,754 is the July intraday peak
12,876 is the May high
13,056 is the February 2012 high
13,058 from the May 2008 peak on that bounce in the selling
13,297 is the April 2012, post bear market high
13,668 from 12-2007 peak
13,692 from 6-2007 peak
14,022 from 7-07 peak
12,391 is the February 2011 peak
12,369 is the left shoulder low from May 2012
The 200 day SMA at 12,350
12,284 is the October 2011 peak
12,258 is the December 2011 peak
12,110 from the March 2007 closing low
12,094 is the April 2011 low
The June low at 11,897 (closing)
11,734 from 11-98 peak
11,717 is the late August 2011 peak
The August low at 11,702
11,555 is the March low
11,452 is the November 2010 peak
11,178 from November 2010
10,978 is the bottom of the November 2010 consolidation
10,750 from September 2010
10,720 is the August closing low
10,705-710 from January 2010 peak
10,694-700 from August 2010 peak
June 18 - Monday
- NAHB Housing Market Index, June (10:00): 29 actual versus 28 expected, 28 prior (revised from 29)
June 19 - Tuesday
- Housing Starts, May (8:30): 708K actual versus 719K expected, 744K prior (revised from 717K)
- Building Permits, May (8:30): 780K actual versus 725K expected, 723K prior (revised from 715K)
June 20 - Wednesday
- MBA Mortgage Index, 06/16 (7:00): -0.8% actual versus 18.0% prior
- Crude Inventories, 06/16 (10:30): 2.861M actual versus -0.191M prior
- FOMC Rate Decision, June (24:30): 0.25% actual versus 0.25% expected, 0.25% prior
June 21 - Thursday
- Initial Claims, 06/16 (8:30): 387K actual versus 380K expected, 389K prior (revised from 386K)
- Continuing Claims, 06/09 (8:30): 3299K actual versus 3278K expected, 3299K prior (revised from 3278K)
- Existing Home Sales, May (10:00): 4.55M actual versus 4.56M expected, 4.62M prior
- Philadelphia Fed, June (10:00): -16.6 actual versus -0.2 expected, -5.8 prior
- Leading Indicators, May (10:00): 0.3% actual versus 0.0% expected, -0.1% prior
- FHFA Housing Price Index, April (10:00): 0.8% actual versus 1.6% prior (revised from 1.8%)
June 25 - Monday
- New Home Sales, May (10:00): 350K expected, 343K prior
June 26 - Tuesday
- Case-Shiller 20-city Price Index, April (9:00): -2.5% expected, -2.6% prior
- Consumer Confidence, June (10:00): 64.0 expected, 64.9 prior
June 27 - Wednesday
- MBA Mortgage Index, 06/23 (7:00): -0.8% prior
- Durable Orders, May (8:30): 0.5% expected, 0.0% prior (revised from 0.2%)
- Durable Orders -ex Transports, May (8:30): 0.7% expected, -0.9% prior (revised from -0.6%)
- Pending Home Sales, May (10:00): 0.5% expected, -5.5% prior
- Crude Inventories, 06/23 (10:30): 2.861M prior
June 28 - Thursday
- Initial Claims, 06/23 (8:30): 385K expected, 387K prior
- Continuing Claims, 06/16 (8:30): 3290K expected, 3299K prior
- GDP - Third Estimate, Q1 (8:30): 1.9% expected, 1.9% prior
- GDP Deflator - Third, Q1 (8:30): 1.7% expected, 1.7% prior
June 29 - Friday
- Personal Income, May (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior
- Personal Spending, May (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.3% prior
- PCE Prices - Core, May (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.1% prior
- Chicago PMI, June (9:45): 52.4 expected, 52.7 prior
- Michigan Sentiment - Final, June (9:55): 74.1 expected, 74.1 prior