|Sam, no matter how deep any selling, no matter how much unemployment we have, or how huge the country's debt load, our stock market has always rallied from past bottoms. |
Expecting it to do otherwise in the future would be foolish.
My only question is are we at a significant bottom now?
I have only one problem with Schaeffer's Analysis this weekend; which is that if we have already formed a bottom it's not a major bottom.
Major bottoms are formed after bear markets, not 11% sell offs.
In every instance of an actual major market bottom sentiment has reached extreme bearishness and market breadth has begun to improve even as the market makes new lows. Lets say the market romps onward and upward from here this summer until the end of the year eventually making new highs. Well even if it does then the last actual major market bottom was in early 2009.
Since that time for the S&P 500 there has been nothing but higher highs and higher lows with not one 20% correction:
Perhaps Schaeffer's and I just have a different definition of a major bottom? But still until we get a lower low the trend is up and the last truly meaningful bottom was in 2009.