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 Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting

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To: leochardonne who wrote (111975)5/21/2012 4:36:53 PM
From: Jim MullensRead Replies (1) of 117477
 
Slacker / Leo, re: Piper / Cowen iPhone LTE…………………..

I see you posted your estimate of 60M 28nm LTE QCOM chipsets for the December qtr. (on APPL board)

I’ve been attempting to make some sense of this connecting the dots between Q’s CC notes and the analysts comments. I’m guessing closer to 75M LTE chipsets (MSM /MDM) in the Dec qtr using 40% of Q’s total (up from 33% at FY12 ye).

Good to see the analyst community starting to make mention of MDM 9615 as I believe after Q’s recent earnings CC we speculated Apple and MDM 9615 as the primary reason for Q’s under estimating 28nm demand (although they cannot mention anything APPL related)

It’s also impossible to estimate the mix between MSM 8960 and MDM 9615 and that could make for “interesting” chipset ASP comparisons in the upcoming earnings reports due to the significant difference in pricing. I believe you / I / Modoff agree that the high end MSMs (8960) ASPs fall between $30 -$35, with the MDMs (w/o APs) in the $16- $20 range. At present with these state of the art MDM still priced at or above QCT’s composite ASP this presents no problem.

Looking at the various iPhone 5 unit estimates, it appears Q’s LTE quarterly chipset estimates have some margin to support their other device partners in addition to Apple.



……………MSM (Merrill)..APPL iPhone 5……….…CS tot iPhone

……………tot……LTE@33%...Hoffman….Munster

2011
..ond…..156
2012
..jfm…..152
..amj…..148……………………………28
..jas…..161……53…33%……………29.5
..FY12..617…………………………………………………………135
..ond…..186……74…40%?…………42.5…………..50
..CY12….647
2013
..jfm…..166
..amj…..174
..jas…..186
..FY13..712……………………………………….......170…………191
..ond…..208?
..CY13….734
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