I went back and looked - this is indeed the fourth analyst downgrade in 2 weeks on the heels of the offering. There are probably more in the making.
You can sneer at analyst opinions but they've been unanimous and, if anything, overly optimistic for at least the past year. Their current price targets represent large reductions in pps from previous price action several years ago ($8+)....we have gone significantly backwards.
Question to Dale or anybody else here: What is the best-case scenario that can be put on the latest events? What did MHR give up in their Baytex property acquisition and offering, what exactly did they gain?
Y'all have heard my doom and gloom take on the downside, now amplified by others - lowered EPS, missed production targets, higher G&A and interest, lower pps, enormous increase in the float, crushing debt, etc. In exchange for this managerial armageddon, what exactly did the company gain?
Sure it allowed them to double their Capex budget but how does this translate into anything specifically beneficial to shareholders. I haven't seen a single opinion that Gary's maneuverings will bring some benefit to shareholders, aside from establishing "meaningful positions" in promising areas. Even though Pritchard's numbers look sloppy and inaccurate, an eventual 15% overshoot in production (18 mboe) has been the rule for the past year or two but hasn't been translated into any advantage. |
