|> Do you honestly believe that renewable power can replace all fossil fuels with currently available technology? |
That would be tough.
A large proportion though. Its all percentages. I think we have to at least transition to mostly electric transportation for commuters. How we do that will probably be a surprise to all of us after its done.
Shipping and Aircraft? Well the economies of those businesses will change. For me it already has. I drive rather than fly more, because the time spent getting to the airport, waiting to get on the plane etc plus the cost and time of renting a car ruins any time/money savings of flying to places less than 300 miles away.
I think people are generally underestimating what we can do with alt energy and particularly conservation. For example when my home was built nat gas was so cheap no one bothered to insulate homes. They do now. Insulation is just a start. Homes are going to be WAY more efficient as we learn how to build them that way, without adding to the costs.
The argument about up times are also fairly bogus since solar and wind combine to produce pretty well during peak hours.
On thing to think about in all this is plastic. If we run out of fossil fuels, or increase the prices drastically due to shortages because we burn all of the easily recovered fossil fuels we will be in deep poo poo. Plastics are essential to our economy.