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From: Eric L	4/2/2012 2:36:07 PM
	of 567

Tero Kuittinen on RIMs Miss ... >> The Gruesome Context of RIM's Miss Tero Kuittinen Forbes \| Tech 3/29/2012 forbes.com RIMM’s revenue crashed from November quarter’s $5.2B to February quarter’s $4.2B. That is the key figure from tonight’s report. It misses the consensus by $300M – a shortfall that is actually substantial considering analysts tried their best to come in low enough. The company shipped just 11.1 M phones, and is now staring at sub-10 M level during the summer quarters. Big misses are not rare in the handset industry. But they are exceptionally rare coming basically 6 months after a major new product launch wave. This is the sweet spot of modern mobile handset product cycle. New phones ramp up in 3 months and they start facing substantial price cuts after 8 months in the market. But at the magical 6-month mark, new models should be hitting an optimal combination of substantial volumes at fat ASP levels. It has been obvious that something has gone horribly wrong with the latest wave of RIM’s Bold and Torch model launches. The Torch just faced a 27% price cut in India. Now we know just how hard they flopped out of the gate. The relatively robust November quarter sales numbers were apparently achieved through stuffing distributors – the February sales data reveals the grim truth about the follow-through. The new Blackberry generation looms somewhere in the hazy horizon of 2012. It may be too late – AT&T and Verizon are very likely contemplating pulling the plug on their old ally. That may explain AT&T’s apparently strong marketing commitment to the Lumia launch and a new wave of Windows models. Even with its dubious prospects, Windows may now be a safer bet than Blackberry. ### - Eric -

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