Silicon Investor
SI
SI

 Technology Stocks : The *NEW* Frank Coluccio Technology Forum

 Public Reply | Prvt Reply | Mark as Last Read | FilePrevious 10 | Next 10 | Previous | Next  
From: axial4/1/2012 8:47:23 PM
Read Replies (2) of 42850
 
Another gentle warning on optimistic (and public) projections .....

The Citicorp Energy Projection

'I would argue that the numbers for Saudi Arabia and Russia are difficult to realistically justify. For the Kingdom, which is reported to be producing 9.9 mbd, to increase production by another 2 mbd is optimistic, given the ageing of their primary fields and the decline in remaining volumes that I will discuss in future posts in the current series on that country. The projection of an increase in Russian production is a similar concern. With the decline in production from Western Siberia there is not enough new production coming from Timan-Pechora and Eastern Siberia to sustain existing levels let alone see an increase in production – a point that has been made by Russian officials in the past. However the real concern lies with the relatively unrealistic image that is being projected for US production over the next eight years.



The image that the above figure projects is that the country is covered in shale, all waiting to provide its wealth to the nation. But that is not the case and shale plays have been a hot topic for a number of years now. And while the map above shows a carpet of shale that has the potential to produce oil and/or natural gas it does not clearly enough distinguish the considerable difference between deposits that are presently economic, and those that are not. (The small number of fields that are labelled as prospective does not speak well for the future).'

---

It is difficult to understand ongoing misrepresentation of the energy future, especially when federal agencies are involved. They've already had to backtrack on wildly optimistic projections for NG. Overestimation continues; observers can only speculate on what alignment of interests supports deceptive forecasting.

Jim
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public Reply | Prvt Reply | Mark as Last Read | FilePrevious 10 | Next 10 | Previous | Next  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQ
Copyright © 1995-2013 Knight Sac Media. All rights reserved.