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Groupon’s Made-Up Holiday to Play Role in First Earnings Report
By David Benoit
W3all Street Journal
February 7, 2012, 1:52 PM
Groupon, one of last year’s most-talked about IPOs, will deliver its first earnings report tomorrow.
The daily-deals company is expected to report a 3 cent per share profit on revenue of $475 million, according to Thomson Reuters. (It is the first time the company has released the data at the end of the quarter, though it did disclose financial data in its pre-IPO filings.)
The stock rallied 15% this year to $23.78 recently, but remains below its highs of over $31 the day it priced, amid concerns about dramatically increased competition.
Here’s what else analysts say to look out for tomorrow.
Citi examines surge in gross billings: Citi analysts predict $1.31 billion in gross billings, tripled the prior year, but slowed dramatically from the quintupling Groupon had been experiencing. Showing the same growth patterns (massive by all accounts except Groupon’s own high bar), Citi believes active customers are Groupon are likely at 31 million, 3.5 times where they were a year earlier.
Raymond James will look for any signs of customer fatigue: Given the slowing growth rates, it matters more if Groupon’s customers are actually buying any Groupons. Raymond James says investors will be focused on consumer engagement metrics, including Groupons sold per active customer.
Morgan Stanley expecting a beat on Groupon’s made up holiday: Morgan Stanley believes Groupon can beat sales expectations, partly thanks to “Grouponicus,” Groupon’s somewhat creepy and made-up commercial holiday that it bases on a legend of Groupo the Deal Bird who travels throughout history bestowing deals upon the people. Outside of that, Morgan Stanley is looking for clarity on what exacting Groupon will report each quarter.
Susquehanna focuses on commissions: The analysts will be watching how much of each sale Groupon is collecting –the take rate. They are also expecting a first-quarter outlook for better top and bottom lines.