|Bob, RtS, Woody and others, |
We would all like to know how much further this uptrend in the market and SOX is going to continue. No one can tell for sure, but IMO we are getting close to a turning point. I say that for a couple of general reasons. The chart of the SOX since the big low in Nov 08 shows up and downs over the ensuing period with varying monthly lengths.
The biggest increase was the 17 month upward run from the Nov 8 low. This makes sense since as shown in many posts, the uptrend in earnings was fast and large during that period. Since then several month uptrends and downtrends have occurred. The last uptrend is on its way into the 5th month. IMO this may go a little further, but will run out of steam soon.
A big factor that affects stock prices is the economy. The Fed has been very influential in getting the stock market to improve, job, housing, and the debt are big long term items that have to be solved. Maybe most have seen the latest CBO report to the nation on 31 Jan, but here is an excerpt, and a URL to read more if desired.
<<CBO projects $1.08 trillion deficit, 8.9 percent jobless rate in 2012
By Erik Wasson - 01/31/12 12:43 PM ET
The Congressional Budget Office on Tuesday predicted the deficit will rise to $1.08 trillion in 2012.
The office also projected the jobless rate would rise to 8.9 percent by the end of 2012, and to 9.2 percent in 2013.