|What Can Go Right Sometimes |
China slows and then stops slowing. Slack from their real estate deceleration is picked up by the burgeoning Chinese consumer as the party's Grand Plan to stoke internal demand within shows some signs of coming together. China goes from tightening to stimulus and the GDP growth rate stabilizes in the mid-to-high single digits.
Europe forcibly restructures Greece, bails out Italy's banks, they have a recession everywhere except Germany and in the end, nothing is solved but nothing is shattered either. The rest of the world learns the truth about how unimportant Europe has become to the global economy.
The Sensex (India), Shanghai Composite (China) and Bovespa (Brazil) get their sh*t together and stop going down. Rate cuts stop the downward slide and an amelioration of US investor fears lead to net inflows to emerging market stocks again.
US GDP growth and hiring surprise everyone. Corporations pass the baton to the consumer, who is sick and tired of being sick and tired. Home prices bottom and move higher in almost half of the Case-Shiller 20-city index. Foreclosures leave the market faster than previously thought. The rate of spending to fix up homes accelerates.
Treasurys stop rallying on bad news overseas and bad news overseas stops getting our attention. Half a trillion in erstwhile "risk-off" capital comes pouring out of bonds and into stocks.
Iran stops sabre-rattling and dicking around with the Straight of Hormuz as it faces a reprise of the Green Revolution within it's own cities. Oil prices settle back down to natural supply/demand levels in the mid-80's which acts like a tax cut for the American consumer.
100,000 troops come home and begin to build lives for themselves and their families. They start businesses and buy foreclosures and speed the velocity of money around the economy with a gush of pent-up desire to consume after years in the desert.
Obama and Romney run neck-and-neck into the election. Congressional approval ratings climb off of multi-decade lows as unemployment creeps down to 7.5%. Gay stuff and abortion end up becoming more important come November 2012 than "the economy" in voters mindsets. Again.
The Nasdaq takes out an 11-year high, the Dow and S&P take out 2011's mid-year highs.