So typically how long could this type of action continue before a reversal in actual price?
As long as more stock needs to be dumped, the news environment remains benign, and something unexpected whatever its significance doesn't occur, the state will persist. However, this process creates volatile supply above. If conditions change, to the extent of the persistence, to that extent the market will reverse.
"3/17/2009 ahahha Message 13548 - ET flows are either in nice rounding bottom patterns or roaring up. For example, although GG's chart looks like it's rolling over, ET FLOW is coming up out of an important broad bottom. I know it's hard to believe that FLOW is bottoming given price action since last September, but some majors, and mids, have strong FLOW uptrend. Must be sentiment only that keeps price down(not MMs)."
In ’09 you were right on and sentiment had it wrong for sure. What about ET FLOW.
I was referring to before the 9th during which I believe I was vague. I'll have to go back and look.
Is there a time where FLOW had it wrong?
This is a question of effective decidability. Flow didn't predict the '87 crash but it did warn about the Oct '97 break, and extremely accurate around y2k. It was totally decisive across 2007. In July 2007 it gave an absolutely decisive, sell all portfolio longs signal. It stayed flat out down during the pricey rally of Sept - Oct 2007 and across 2008. It's doing the same now except the slope is steeper. The market can't crash because of the stabilizers so each intrinsic trend induced mark-up rally fails and sets the price downtrend. Remember what I said? The market seems to rise when the bear is developing yet always ends lower. In a bear market the bears are right.
Can’t anything change direction on a dime in this market?
Flow reflects what people are doing and that is determined by what's going on in the world. So your question equates to, "can't anything change the direction on a dime in world economies"?
My answer: No, because people don't want them to change. Yet.
What separates ET FLOW from any other form of seeing what is going on internally?
ET flow is the only scientific approach. I'm not the only one who uses it although it's very complicated to get the right data and then interpret it correctly. Other practitioners are bound to institutions. If institutions knew about what I've created, I'd get a path beaten to my door. Ten or so years ago on the ATHM board I used to say, "build a better mousetrap and the world will beat a path away from your door". I've built a better mousetrap and I'm quite happy about the result. WHO NEEDS THEM. Poor people, that's who.
Can this FlOW go from being the worst you have seen one day to bottoming the next?
Amazingly no. My algorithms use no MAs. It's that decisive. That's why it's so difficult to obey. When it tells you to sell you're feeling all hunky about the dough you're raking in and can't imagine a reversal. Grace observed that it's extremely good at keeping you out when you ought not be in. It was pretty much greek to gladman and that seems to be the general case unless one has a knack for graph reading.
So IYO does this suggest that when the market drops it drops extremely or does it simply suggest that the market has held up exceptionally well for what is happening?
Above I've implied both. This market can stand no bad news, which so far, it hasn't received. Our economy is in stasis.In some sense that's not bad, but in a larger sense, it's extremely bad.
until the final denouement when paper money becomes worthless and you have to bite coins to live
It seems like prophecy may be fulfilled.
In the long run we are all dead. --- Keynes.
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