|RE: "Do you understand what a basket case World economy is?"|
There are significant economic problems in the US and in Europe. There are some problems in China and with the Chinese currency exchange level. Other areas, like the Middle East, have a long way to go to reach Western economic activity levels. I think your characterization, "basket case," is incorrect and reflects your view that the half empty glass is empty. It is not empty! It is half full and it is growing.
RE: "All this demand will come from where?"
The world is becoming networked, both people and things. The segment of the world's population that is participating in the global economy is growing rapidly. These two phenomena, more people connected in more ways, are driven by semiconductors. That is the source of semi demand and, downstream, semi equip demand.
RE: "We had a lot of equipment shipped over the past year and a half."
Yes, but at the current nodes of the Moore's Law roadmap, technical challenges require much greater capital intensity and the equipment shipped did not raise wafer capacity as much as the same dollar value of equipment did in the past.
RE: "...but is useless to me as an investor trying to play each cycle as it evolves."
I have watched the "cycles" and the people "playing" them for 16 years here at SI. This thread is about the "cycles." Most people "playing" the "cycles" should say they are "playing" the volatility, because most don't know much about the nature of the "cycles" except for the price movement and changes in order rates.
RE: "NVLS may as well make $8/share one day but before that chances are they will be losing money."
NVLS CEO doesn't believe that. The street doesn't believe that. I don't believe that. NVLS didn't buy back 108 million shares because it was losing money.
Good luck! If you short, don't short ASML, AMAT, KLAC, NVLS, and LRCX. There are plenty of lesser companies that will improve your odds.