|Dan, "Now, I really believe in the smartphone"|
I don't - as much anymore.
Consumers are not talking as much on cellphones nowadays. They are texting or getting on social media.
Using your "phone" as a real web browser is not very popular because of its limitations e.g a small screen - all that finger gesturing you have to do to zoom in an out all the time.
So I see one possible trend: a 7" or larger pad for real browsing, with a real full page browser, not jut apps - WiFi and connectable maybe via bluetooth to a basic voice/text 3G/4G phone with a month or two of standby. Like the basic 2G/3G Nokias. Small enough to always bring with you, in your pocket.
The pad with its own battery for when you use it. You can leave it in the car when you go shopping or while commuting.
When you really want to upgrade you don't have to replace both at the same time. When a great new pad comes to market, you buy it without a contract.
It'll take some carrier adjustment...