That's bullshit. We knew there were some significant cracks back in the summer of 2007 when the Bear Sterns rumors fired up. By the fall if '07 most folks I knew had moved huge positions into cash and started day trading and initiating short positions. Oil was surging towards 147 (were nowhere near that today) and all the market generals started falling off....by q1 2008 all market leadership was lost save for the Ag's, as it turns out; the last generals left standing on the field. Meanwhile, unreasonable froth had developed in various commodities related juniors as capital was fleeing the former leaders...a sign that the market had found its top as every tom dick and Harry had gone long stocks. Then the "surprise" events unfolded in the fall. If you were caught long, it was because you weren't watching the warning signs;
1. Oil at $147 was destroying industries dependent on it, plus the ensuing demand distruction. Were at 109 now, going to 90...
2. The subprime/housing crisis emerged. It will be a long road, but we're emerging, not plunging. If you think the market cam possibly give you a second gift in a generation of a $2 dollar Teck Cominco, $.20 cent AMZ, $40 AAPL, than you're the most optimistic opportunist in the world, and I and everyone else would be happier than a pig in shit.
3. Unreasonable Downside corrections and unreasonable upside moves in the market are completely normal and to be expected. If your strategy is to sit on cash waiting for a downside event, you'll sure waste one he'll of an opportunity to take the upside moves. If you have conviction in the downside probability, get short...but don't sit on 90 %cash for gawd's sake! You sit on cash when your deer in the headlights lost.
Anyways, sorry for the rant. It just drives me nuts when people latch on to the arguments of the pundit Bears....who've been spinning different variations of the same shit for a couple years now. |
