|Whistling Dixie ... |
Henry the 8th U'am (or were),
<< There is nothing wrong with the CDMA infrastructure business. >>
Let's get real, instead of ridiculous, pull thy head out of the sand, and let's talk fact instead of attempting to perpetrate fiction on this board or any other.
CDMA currently represents ~14% of the infra market (Del'oro/Gartner/Other), considerably trailing 2G/2.5G GSM (GSM, GSM/GPRS, GSM/EGPRS) which was surpassed for the 1st time in 2008 by 3GPP 3GSM (WCDMA and its HSPA extensions) last year, and it's declining even faster than 2G/2.5G GSM.
Qualcomm and 3GPP2's CDMA2000 is the dominant technology in 3 countries -- the USA, Canada, and South Korea, and 3GPP's 3GSM is rapidly overtaking CDMA2000 in both South Korea and Canada.
CDMA2000 has no evolution path into 4G. Qualcomm is a principle contributor (one of several along with Ericsson, Nokia, Samsung, Huawei et al) to 3GPP LTE/SAE.
On the infra side of mobile wireless Nortel obviously is dead meat. Moto's a non-player, and without switching gear never really was. Paris based (formerly AT&T) Lucent (noe Alcatel-Lucent) with its CDMA2000 'crown jewels' will get creamed and decimated by Huawei very shortly. It's a 3 horse race going forward.
Its the CDMA2000 and (those stick with TD-SCDMA, i.e. China Mobile) players (and NTT DoComo) that are accelerating the transition of CDMA2000 to LTE/SAE and for good reason. With no migration path (which even 2G/2.5G GSM has) they need to move forward quickly.
Ericsson obtained an extremely nice win here and kicked NSN's butt. It gives Qualcomm an opportunity to reinvigorate an Ericsson relationship, and if I represented Qualcomm, and had a choice to team (again) with infra leader Ericsson instead of NSN, on the infra side of the mobile wireless business (what little's s left of CDMA2000 and more importantly LTE going forward), I'd choose Ericsson hands down over NSN (and yes, I hold NOK as well as QCOM, and do not hold ERIC ).
Ericsson wins big in this deal. So does Qualcomm who has intelligently modified its strategic business planning to adapt to reality under its current leadership, and is itself becoming an industry leader -- already is in not only positive IPR royalty flow and IC silicon revenue, .
<< If the number of CDMA subscribers begins to decrease, it's all over for Paul Jacobs and company at Qualcomm. >>
You are Whistling Dixie.
- Eric (not ERIC) -