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From: Drbob512	1/10/2008 10:03:04 AM
	of 100040

*** TA Update (intra-day) *** The market is holding on for dear life as the Spx has traded at the correction low near 1390 this week (today's low of 1390) and had a new closing low on Tuesday. It has yet to take out the intra-day low of 1370 but that might be coming today or tomorrow as the market is technically very weak. No capitulation/selling climax is apparent and a breakdown is likely as a result. The a/d's are about 1/2, with the TRIN just below 1.00 for the NYSE but above 1.00 for the Nasdaq. The u/d vol for the NYSE is about 2/3 while on the Nasdaq is worse, and the u/d vol figures and trend are the best ST signals to watch for the trend. If they worsen considerably today, it could portend the break. Next leg down would appear to target minor support at 1320 and then at 1270, and possibly major support at 1225. A break might not be avoidable even with a Bernanke speech today or a rate cut. So the line in the sand might be 1370 and if it is tested or breached without a selling climax and bullish reversal, the next leg down will be highly probable. Bulls need to find a way to get this market's SPX to hold for a close above 1390 and an intra-day print of above 1370 if we don't get a selling climax. Triple bottoms are quite rare, another factor that hurts the bulls' chances to prevent another leg down, an impulse move, and a bear market signal. Crude oil is down sharply today and may move down in sympathy with stocks, with 90 and 86 as support levels. Demand reduction is expected if the U.S. economy enters recession. drbob

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