The math on AAB-001 --- It is Huge!!!!!!!!!!! Just do the math yourself.
I think this is a conservative revenue picture for AAB-001 starting in 2010 for Elan
Assume just 10,000,000 patients and 15% penetration ( ow) at $15,000 per years ( very low for this drug).
10,000,000 X .15 = 1.5 million patients only @ $15,000 each per year = $22.5 Billion Annual Gross Revenue
Assume a low net profit margin, of only 70% (net of cost of manufacturing @ 20% and sales/marketing costs (way too high) at 10%)
$22.5 billion X .70 = $15.75 Billion net profit on AAB-001, now slit it 50% to get Elan's half, or
$7.875 Billion Annual Profit for Elan, divided by 468 million shares outstanding = EPS of $16.83
EPS of $16.83 at a low multiple of say only 15 = Price Per Share of Elan $252.45 per share
Discount this any way you want, change the assumptions, move the timing out, and your probability of success factor. The point is, IF you believe in this science, why in the world would you give your shares away for $19. Please do your own math and don't listen to Wall Street. And this is ABB-001 only; not Tysabri, not ACC-001 or any of the other products in the pipeline for ALZ or PD. Debt ---- forget the debt -- it will be repaid to further drive EPS up from today. Think before you sell. At least do some simple math using your own assumptions and assume the rest of the company is just at break even.
Post your math here. Correct my math. Let's start talking about real numbers.
FaceReality |
