|my informal semi-annual synopsis of AMAT|
My semi-annual stock synopses are a task I give myself every six months where I review for myself our stocks. This is not a proclamation of truth but a chance for me to record my thoughts, pass them along, and learn from others who might know more than me. I hope you find these words useful. Note that I strongly believe that for a short while, a stock and the company can have two completely different stories and understanding that difference is where an individual investor can find an advantage.
Market Cap $37B
We've held AMAT as an investment for many years and the only reason I would change that is because it has become our largest holding. The company impressed me with their actions during the downturn. I think they took the time to better position themselves for this next series of cycles. I am glad to hear about their work for flat screen TVs, though I use that more as a measure of their willingness to look to other markets, not as a massive percentage of current revenue. The biggest threat I see is nanotech which can change the entire industry. I know no reason why they can't handle that well too. Their price to sales looks a bit high. Their debt to equity looks good. Based on the stock and company I will continue to HOLD, but personally we might SELL to rebalance our portfolio.
My wife and I are LTBH (Long Term Buy and Hold) with a strong emphasis on the H. Our total churn for 2003 was to buy two or three stocks back in March and haven’t sold anything for over a year. I am NOT a professional investor or an expert in any of the topics I discussed, but that is the nature of most individual investors. I undoubtedly overlooked something great about each company and also missed some warning signal. I invest with the knowledge that no company is perfect and realize that risk and chance determine future performance as much as in-depth analysis. Of course, it has worked so far. I have been investing for over two decades and continue to learn how much I don’t know.
Good luck to all.