Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Message Board

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To: da_cheif™ who wrote (18362)	12/16/2003 9:25:59 AM
From: MeDroogies	Read Replies (1) of 19011

There are 2 benefits to the low dollar. One is that foreign workers are becoming more expensive, particularly when you consider the productivity gains that the US economy has had over the last 2 years. The other is that exports start paying off more, and for a few months the "J" curve kicks in. This is the anomaly that is based on the fact that most purchases are made at a point in time when there are high dollar valuations (the purchase looks really cheap), but as the dollar falls, the actual income from the sale rises. As a result, you get about 6 months of windfall before purchase arrangements adjust to the new pricing. The downside is that Americans who wish to travel abroad are stung. So are Americans who thrive on purchases of foreign "status" goods (BMWs, Mercedes, etc.). There is always a bad to go with the good in wild economic swings of this nature. Another "bad" is that foreign inflows of investments will fall. In general, this is probably the best thing that could happen to the US economy at this stage of the recovery. Unfortunately, I'm not sure it's good for the rest of the world. World growth, once so dependent on US strength, is now very decentralized.