Lucent Technologies (LU) Message Board

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To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (14568)	4/27/2000 3:48:00 PM
From: Mr.Fun	Read Replies (3) of 21876

Kenneth, You are correct - I use TDM rather than SONET simply because I want to include SDH as well and its easier than typing SONET/SDH all the time. As for the Verizon contract, given NT's incumbent position at Airtouch and the reality that Verizon will spend $3B+ in capex this year, it would have been a shocker if NT HADN'T gotten that $500M contract. As LU is dominant in the BAM and GTE territories, I'm sure they will get a nice juicy piece as well. Finally, while this quarter has convinced me that NT will get enough optical capacity on line to top 25% growth (after adjusting for the consolidation of the JV sales) for all of 2000, I'm less confident for 2001, although it is certainly plausible. Analyzing semiconductor and electronics companies has made me leary of the long-term demand. Historically, in times of equipment shortages, end-customers overstate their likely spending plans for hard-to-get items so as to goad their suppliers into adding capacity. I suspect optical spending will be good in 01, but not nearly as good as it is now.